The MLB All-Star Break is upon us and that means the Home Run Derby and All-Star game is upon us. The Home Run Derby is back on July 12th at 8 PM on ESPN at at Denver’s Coors Field. If you know Coors Field, you know it is a hitters heaven. You will for sure see a lot of fireworks and long home runs that night. . The group features the defending champion the Mets’ Pete Alonso , the Rangers’ Joey Gallo, the Orioles’ Trey Mancini, the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani, the A’s Matt Olson, the Royals’ Salvador Perez, the Nationals’ Juan Soto and the Rockies’ Trevor Story. The only person that is missing that would make the Home Run Derby must watch is the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but beggars can’t be choosers…
1. Shohei Ohtani: 32 HR (+375)
The odds on favorite to win this event is the most exciting player in baseball. If you don’t know who Ohtani is, you must have been living under a rock. He has 33 homers and 70 RBIs to this point. Did I mention he was a pitcher too? He has 13 starts this season with a 4-1 record and 3.49 ERA. He became only the second player in the past 20 seasons to reach 32 homers in his team’s first 86 games, joining Chris Davis (2013).Ohtani has been a true slugger, connecting on 80 home runs, 65 doubles, 11 triples, and 217 RBIs in his four year career. However, I am not going to pick him to win. The top seed hasn't even advanced to the finals since 2015. I believe that Ohtani will get upset in the semi-finals to Pete Alonso.
2. Joey Gallo: 23 HR (+450)
Gallo has never been to this event before. It is crazy to think about because early in his career he was labeled as a “home run or strikeout” player. Gallo currently has 144 homeruns in his career. He owns two career homers that have traveled 490-plus feet, including a 495-footer on July 20, 2018. Expect some moon shots by Gallo. Although he is the second seed, I believe he is going to get upset by the “hometown kid”, Trevor Story in the first round.
3. Matt Olson: 21 HR (+600)
Matt Olson has become one of my favorite players on the A’s. He was called up for good in early August in 2017. Only three players (Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez and Eugenio Suárez) have gone deep more times since that date than Olson (120). The Coliseum is viewed as a pitchers ballpark and ranks pretty low in homeruns. Olson has hit 65 homers on the road, compared with 59 at home. It will be interesting to see what Olson can do at Coors, since it is the best hitting ballpark anyone can ask for. I believe he is going to go on a run, but come up a little short, losing to Trevor Story in the semi-finals.
4. Salvador Perez: 20 HR (+700)
Who doesn’t love Salvador Perez? He is a for sure MLB hall of famer and looks to beef up his resume even more. He is looking to be the first catcher in MLB history to win a Home Run Derby. Ivan Rodriguez in 2005 was the last catcher to even finish second. He is looking to have a new career high in homeruns this season (27 in 2017 and 2018). I believe he is going to lose in the first round to the defending champion, Pete Alonso.
5. Pete Alonso: 15 HR (+500)
Pete Alonso is the defending Home Run Derby champion in 2019. He is looking to defend his crown in 2021, since the derby in 2020 got cancelled due to COVID-19. He did it by launching 57 total homers in 2019, the fourth most in a Derby. He hit 20 in a semifinal victory over Ronald Acuña Jr. and 23 in the final showdown with Guerrero. Alonso now has a chance to join Ken Griffey Jr. (1994, ‘98-99), Yoenis Céspedes (2013-14) and Prince Fielder (2009, 2012) as the only multiple-time Derby champions. I believe he is going to lose his crown in 2021 to Trevor Story in the finals.
6. Trey Mancini: 15 HR (+1000)
What a comeback story for Trey Mancini. Many believed that he wouldn’t comeback to the MLB, especially not being in the Home Run Derby. Mancini missed last season while being treated for Stage 3 colon cancer. Mancini said he wanted to compete in the Derby “to show people that there is life after a cancer diagnosis and after chemotherapy.” Even though he has the worst odds in the derby and I think he is is going to lose in the first round to Mat Olson, a little part of me wants him to win to the Home Run Derby to show everyone to never give up.
7. Trevor Story: 11 HR (+850)
The “hometown” kid from the Rockies. If anyone has a homefield advantage in this field, its him. He is looking to win it in front of his hometown crowd. Three players have pulled off that neat feat before. Harper in 2018 in Washington, Todd Frazier in 2015 in Cincinnati and Ryne Sandberg in 1990 in Chicago. I believe he will have the home town crowd going and on his side throughout the whole night. With all that being said I think he will win the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby, defeating Pete Alonso in the finals, with all the momentum being in Story’s side. However, with the Rockies being in last place, expect a trade involving Story in the recent future, unless they are using all of the “Arenado” money they saved from the Cardinals trade to pay him instead.
8. Juan Soto: 11 HR (+750)
Soto got the unfortunate tiebreaker seed to face Ohtani in the first round. Soto is trying to replicate what Harper did when he was with the Nationals. The up incoming star is the second player in Nationals history to participate in the Home Run Derby. The other player being Bryce Harper. Harper won the event in 2018 in Washington and also finished as the runner-up in 2013. However, I believe the Ohtani hype train is going to be too much and lose in the first round.