MLB Offseason Preview & What A Lockout Could Mean For The Sport Moving Forward

Another MLB season has come and gone, and the Atlanta Braves took full advantage of the underachieving National League East, and won the World Series. With a LOT of star free agents available on the open market, many teams are going to try to do whatever they can to win their services for the foreseeable future. The Red Sox surprised some people and made it to the ALCS; could that accolade be enough to draw in a big name or two? The Yankees, who always underachieve, are always looking for help, and their finger will be in the elite free agent cookie jar yet again. The Angels, who’ve been wasting away Mike Trout’s talents for the better part of a decade, swung early for a pitcher for seemingly the first time in forever in Noah Syndergaard. Their crosstown rivals in the Dodgers have a few elite free agents of their own, and could try to resign them or to retool with some “replacements.”

Then there’s the Phillies who are fresh off of having the NL MVP in Bryce Harper, but with pitching woes continuing for this ball club, and Aaron Nola looking pretty bad in the 2021 season, pitching will definitely be on their sights. Lastly, we have the Mets, who finally have a general manager of their own in Billy Eppler, have 3 stud free agents that could walk, need pitching help more than any contender, need one more outfielder, and it’s their new owner Steve Cohen’s first FULL offseason to work with the Metropolitans.

In a year with so many stars on the free agent market, where will they all end up?

Carlos Correa SS

Already a World Series champion, the 26-year-old shortstop is phenomenal with both the glove and bat. In 2021, he ranked third at his position in FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement (5.8), posted a .850 OPS and he led MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (21). A great character in the clubhouse and a proven performer in October [whether you like to admit it or not] Correa will earn every bit of his next contract.

Contract Prediction: Tigers, 10-years $250M

Corey Seager SS

The 27-year-old has dealt with a few injuries in his career, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018 and dealing with elbow, hand and hamstring issues occasionally. But a career .870 OPS and 23.7 fWAR through 636 games tells you everything you need to know about his pure talent. He’ll soon become one of the highest-paid players in MLB and he could play shortstop or third base for his next team.

Contract Prediction: Dodgers, 8-years $248M

Freddie Freeman 1B

Freddie Freeman is the Atlanta Braves. Drafted with the 78th pick in the 2007 MLB Draft, Freeman quickly sky rocketed to become an elite prospect and made his MLB debut in September 2010. More than a decade later, the five-time All-Star and 2020 NL MVP, could hit the open market. Freeman and the Braves have discussed an extension all year, but the two sides remain far apart, according to reports. He just turned 32, so there will be a slightly reduced market for the star. But if the Braves want to bring him back, helping Freeman end his career in Atlanta, it’s likely going to cost $150-plus million.

Contract Prediction: Braves, 6-years $165M

Marcus Semien SB/SS

Semien could’ve signed a multi-year deal last winter, taking as much total money as offered. Instead, following an underwhelming season in 2020, he agreed to a one-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s been one of the best second basemen in baseball this year and nearly won the AL MVP.

Put the COVID-shortened season aside, it was a strange year. Semien hit 33 home runs and slashed .285/.369/.522 with a 7.6 fWAR in 2019. He blew past some of those numbers in 2021, finishing with 45 home runs with a .873 OPS and a 6.6 fWAR. He might only get a three or four-year deal as a 31-year-old, but he deserves to make a lot more than the $18 million qualifying offer.

Contract Prediction: Mariners, 6-years, $150M

Max Scherzer SP

After joining the Dodgers, the 37-year-old went 7-0 in nine starts with a stellar 35.1% strikeout rate and an ERA of 2.08. The dominance put him in the thick of the NL Cy Young race, which would be the fourth in his legendary career. World Series contenders like the San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves and Dodgers should be willing to offer a blank check over three years.

Contract Prediction: Dodgers, 3-years $75M

Kris Bryant 3B/OF

Kris Bryant is one of the most fascinating free agents this winter. Once an NL MVP and considered one of the best players in baseball, the 29-year-old’s reputation has taken a hit in recent years. After posting a .903 OPS in 2019, the COVID-shortened season saw him finish with a .644 OPS. Bryant posted a .324/./406/.611 slash line with 12 home runs and a 1.016 OPS in his first 50 games in 2021. Over his next 43 games in Chicago, he slashed .191/.296/.362 with a .658 OPS. Bryant got better with the Giants posting an .865 OPS. His defensive versatility should help Scott Boras to be able to negotiate a huge contract.

Contract Prediction: Mets. 5-years $150M

Trevor Story SS

Even a relatively disappointing season won’t take too much of the shine on Story’s value to other teams. He played through an elbow issue all season for one of the worst teams in MLB, doing what he could in a non-competitive environment. Even away from Coors Field, teams should feel confident in his bat and glove. There were the same offensive question marks on DJ LeMahieu’s name in the 2018 offseason, and he’s turned out just fine in the Bronx.

Contract Prediction: Astros, 6-years $150M

Robbie Ray SP

The Blue Jays signed Ray to a one-year, $8M contract in November 2020. At the time, the organization hoped it could help him rediscover some things and potentially get a mid-rotation arm on a good deal. They got a lot more than that. Ray posted phenomenal numbers in 2021, and won the AL Cy Young Award.

Ray, 29, thrived in 2017, posting a 2.89 ERA with a 12.11 K/9, .197 batting average allowed and 32.8% strikeout rate. Over the next three seasons, he posted a 4.52 ERA with a 5.12 BB/9 and walked 13.1% of batters faced. The talent was always there to be an ace and if teams determine this is legit, expect a massive contract.

Contract Prediction: Blue Jays, 5-years $100M

Nick Castellanos 3B/RF

The Cincinnati Reds are certainly pleased with the four-year, $64 million contract they signed Nick Castellanos to before the 2020 season. While he struggled in the first year of the deal, we’ve seen a different version in a potential walk year. Castellanos posted a BA over .300 for the first time in his career, finished with a career-best .939 OPS and is part of the 30-homer club. He declined the $16M 2022 option and is banking on himself to be able to put up another career year.

Contract Prediction: Tigers, 4-years $80M

Marcus Stroman SP

The 30-year-old doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (22% K-rate), but opponents hit just .233 off him in 2021 and the hits allowed don’t often leave the ballparks. The end result is a 2.88 ERA across 31 starts, meaning he’s made 30-plus starts across four of his last five seasons. With that durability and consistency, Stroman will have plenty of multi-year offers to choose from as a high-end no. 2 starter.

Contract Prediction: Mets, 4-years $100M

Kevin Gausman SP

Turning 31 in January, Gausman manifested a 2.78 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2021. Gausman reached the 200-strikeout milestone this season and has been a workhorse in San Francisco’s rotation. He has regressed a bit since being named to an All-Star, posting a 4.77 ERA in his last 12 starts, but that 3.49 FIP and 75/19 K/BB ratio will mean a lot more to teams seeking help in the front end of their rotation.

Contract Prediction: Mariners, 3-years $60M

Carlos Rodón SP

Rodón is easily one of the best sports stories in 2020. The Chicago White Sox non-tendered him on Dec. 2, 2020 and that seemed to be the end for a pitcher with once so much promise after being drafted 3rd overall in 2014. But Chicago brought him back on a one-year, $3M contract. Needless to say, a lot went right for a pitcher who is now one of the top pitchers on the market.

The 28-year-old lefty posted a 2.37 ERA, 34.6% strikeout rate, .189 batting average allowed and a 5.14 K/B ratio with 185 strikeouts and 36 walks. Rodon’s stuff is electric and he should have no trouble landing a huge contract from any team.

Contract Prediction: Mets, 5-years $75M

Michael Conforto RF

The 2021 season certainly didn’t play out how Conforto or the New York Mets imagined it would. He missed significant time with a hamstring injury, the second time in two seasons a hamstring strain sent him to the IL. An All-Star in 2017, New York’s outfielder posted a career-worst OPS (.706) and finished with a sub 1.0 fWAR. But he’s still entering his prime and teams will surly feel confident that a player who posted a 135 wRC+ with 42 home runs and a .875 OPS from 2019-’20, will return.

Contract Prediction: Mariners, 5-years $125M

Starling Marte CF

After the shocking trade of Jesus Luzardo for Marte straight up, Marte posted a .317/.359/.466 slash with 23 stolen bases and 34 runs scored in 52 games. He played pretty well in center field, despite the difficult adjustments of a new ballpark, which only elevated his stock. There are plenty of teams in need of a center fielder and Marte, even while entering his age-33 season, will be a prime target.

Contract Prediction: Mets, 4-years $65M

Javier Báez SS/2B

Báez is an entertaining player and his work with the glove is outstanding, but there are drawbacks. For all the physical talent, Baez’s swing-and-miss rates are getting worse. His strikeout rate has increased every year since 2018 (25.9%) and is now topping out above 33%. Keep in mind, he’s only walking in 5.2% of his plate appearances. The power is great, but the flaws in his swing will only get worse with age. Báez is one of the riskiest MLB free agents this winter.

Contract Prediction: Mets, 5-years $125M

Chris Taylor INF/OF

Availability and versatility are two increasingly valuable traits for MLB teams. Taylor played in 120-plus games from 2017-’19, appeared in 56-of-60 games in 2020 and has over 590 at-bats this season. But defensive flexibility is his true calling card, making 20-plus appearances at second base, shortstop, center field and left field this season. He’s also a patient hitter who you can count on for a .330-plus OBP and .780-plus OPS, Taylor is going to land a bigger contract than MANY fans expect.

Contract Prediction: Cardinals, 5-years $75M

Anthony Rizzo 1B

A few years ago, Rizzo would be widely viewed as one of the most talented players not only available, but in the sport. But we’ve seen a rather significant decline from the All-Star first baseman in recent years. After posting 30-plus home runs and averaging an OPS over .900 from 2014-’17, Rizzo’s stats have looked much different since then.

He slashed .222/.342/.414 in the COVID-shortened season and things didn’t get much better in 2021. Since joining the Yankees, Rizzo’s OPS was at .769, slightly below average and he posted a career-worst walk rate (8.6%). Rizzo is still a very good player, he’s just no longer an All-Star.

Contract Prediction: Cubs, 5-years $90M

Clayton Kershaw SP

There aren’t specifics on the damage to Kershaw’s forearm, but the Dodgers quickly ruled him out for the postseason. The elbow and back injuries aren’t going away, making any multi-year deal a risk. While it’s too early for predictions, the Texas Rangers make logical sense as a free-agent landing spot. The Rangers take chances on pitchers with durability concerns (Lance Lynn, Corey Kluber) and bringing the Texas native home offers some appeal.

Contract Prediction: Astros, 1-year $20M with two-$25M player options for 2023-24

Kyle Schwarber 1B/DH

The Schwarber trade worked out quite nicely for the Red Sox. Schwarber crushed home runs and continued to be an on-base machine. The hot streak is going to make a big difference for him in free agency. Schwarber will benefit from the universal DH likely being put into place in the next CBA. Serving as a designated hitter, teams can feel pretty confident in the 28-year-old hitting 30-plus home runs, posting an OBP over .330 and a .800+ OPS.

Contract Prediction: Red Sox, 2-years $30M

Mark Canha OF

Canha will be 33 when spring training starts, but his age shouldn’t take too much away from his value. He spent a majority of the season as Oakland’s leadoff hitter, walking in 12.5% of his plate appearances, scoring 93 runs and being part of the 10-10 club. Canha’s right-handed bat and outfielder versatility should land him a suitable contract with a potential contender.

Contract Prediction: Mets, 2-years $30M

A new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) will surely ensue a lockout. Many players, and teams, want to sign before the potential lockout, so this could be a very interesting and fast past next coming weeks before we have a temporary pause from anything happening. There are two topics that most care about in this new CBA that will be agreed by players, owners, and MLB officials, that is the universal DH, and restrictions on he shift. For so long the National League has not had the benefit of having a designated hitter, we got a nice tease of it in 2020, but that wasn’t nearly enough. I could go on all day about how it hurts teams, and quite literally, pitchers put themselves at risk not only in the batters box, but on the base paths as well.

The shift has been something that’s been in baseball primarily since 2010. It’s quickly helped to ruin the game as run productions has taken a drastic decline year after year since this, as I call it, abomination has been infecting the sport. Players, most notably Francisco Lindor, have spoken out about this newfound atrocity, and he’s not the only one. For years players have scoffed at this idea, and have wanted to see it restricted in some way shape or form. While I say abolish it at all costs and make it a thing of the past that the next generation of fans can laugh about, that surely won’t happen… at least I don’t think it will.

We’ll see if there’s even a lockout, reporters such as Jeff Passan seem to believe so, and have even called it, “an upcoming grueling process.” That could be all talk, but we’ve seen in the past, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic started, that the league and its players don’t always see eye to eye. But at the end of the day, lockouts happen in sports. We most notably saw it in MLB back in the 90s, and the NBA and NHL over the last 10-years or so. They’re usually fairly long and quite strenuous, but at the end of them there’s always some good that comes out.

In 2020, the league lost around $3 billion in operational losses in 2020, due to a shortened season played mostly in empty stadiums, during the COVID-19 pandemic. MLB wants ways to make money, after they still try earn back money for the unforeseen 2020 season.