This edition of “The Final Bell MMA” is covering this week’s UFC PPV which features a title bout with huge implications for the Heavyweight division. The consensus Heavyweight GOAT Stipe Miocic is taking on a man who has steam rolled everyone in the division outside of him in Francis “The Predator” Ngannou.
Stipe Miocic (Champion) vs Francis Ngannou (Challenger) (Heavyweight)
The headlining bout of this card promises to be an insane fire fight as the two man standing across the octagon from each other are fighters at the top of their game, both with great power and speed. Although Miocic has greater ground game, the threat of the one punch knockout by Ngannou is always present as seen in his matchup with Alistair Overeem.
Breaking down this fight statistically Miocic is on a 2 fight win streak with both of those wins being the second and third fight in the trilogy with Daniel Cormier. Before the first Cormier fight in which he lost Miocic was on an impressive six fight winning streak which dates all the way back to 2015 with a victory over Mark Hunt.
Miocic is probably one of the most well rounded fighters we have seen in the octagon, with a strong mix of striking as well as the ability to take his opponent down when needed. Miocic lands an impressive 4.90 significant strikes per minute, compared to the 2.23 strikes per minute by Ngannou. Miocic also lands 1.92 takedowns per 15 minute fights.
This is where I believe Miocic needs to take the fight, in order to keep the Heavyweight title around his waist. The first matchup between these two occurred in 2018 at UFC 220, where Ngannou lost via a unanimous decision. In that matchup Miocic landed 70 total strikes to Ngannou’s 21 as well as securing 6 takedowns and maintaining control. Although this is what some fans would classify as a “boring fight” Miocic played to his strengths in order to keep a man with cinderblock hands away from knocking him inot unconsciousness.
Miocic should look to implement the same game plan in this re-matchup, as although Ngannou has improved greatly over the last three years his takedown defense is still a weaker part of his game even though it stands at 71%. Ngannou’s path to victory is to do what got him this rematch in the first place, look for a counter opportunity and finish Stipe earlier with a power shot.
Ngannou is currently riding a 4 fight win streak, all of which came by finishing his opponent and three of those four earning him an extra paycheck with performance of the night bonuses. All four of these victories as well came in the first round with only his knockout over former champion Junior Dos Santos lasting over 60 seconds. Ngannou’s ability to fold someone up like a lawn chair with one shot is some of the most devastating knockout power I have ever seen, but the gas tank is the question similar to the old fight between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin.
Ngannou cannot gas himself out in this fight, even if he cant KO Stipe in the first 60 seconds he needs to conserve some of that gas tank, and keep looking for his knockout shot with forward pressure and finding a counter to Stipe as well.
This fight really promises to be one of two things, I think we either see a destructive knockout and a new champion being crowned, or we see Miocic slowly gas out his opponent and take him into the championship rounds before securing a late TKO such as the Cormier fight or another easy unanimous decision for MIocic.
Image: From Oddsshark.com
Alexander Volkanovski (Champion) vs Brian Ortega (Challenger) (145 lbs Featherweight)
The other title fight on this card also has a lot of implications for the division on the line when the two 145 pounders face off. Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski is the new king of the mountain at featherweight after 2 very close fights both with some questions about the judges scorecards against another great pound for pound fighter and former champion Max Holloway. However, he has kept the belt around his waist for now with heavy pressure on the feet and backing his opponent down and finding the necessary takedowns as well to control his opponent. The City Kickboxing product lands a devastating 6.15 significant strikes per minute, which is a high paced and constant pressure fight and he enjoys keeping his opponent on the back foot.
The Australian has also yet to lose within the octagon winning 9 straight going back to his debut against Yusuke Kasuya. Volkanovski has quite a task in front of him not only if he wins the fight but also Max Holloway has proved he deserves another shot against the champion after destroying Calvin Kattar’s face back in January. Volkanovski’s key to victory in this fight has to be to keep the fight standing and using his pressure to just overwhelm his opponent and possibly secure a late round TKO, or grind out a decision victory due to his edge in the striking department.
This is a job easier said than done as the challenger standing across from him is one of the most talented fighters in the featherweight division and an opponent who could definitely defy the odds and pick up a victory in this title bout. Brian Ortega’s lone UFC loss comes against Max Holloway in what was a all-time showcase for the former champion as Holloway landed 290 strikes on Ortega securing the 4th round TKO due to a doctor stoppage. Ortega then took an almost two-year layoff before returning against the “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung, and absolutely dominated on the feet landing 127 strikes with 2 knockdowns on his way to the unanimous decision victory.
Before the Holloway loss Ortega was on a huge winning streak, 6 within the division all by stoppage and half of them by submission. Ortega is one of the most slick submission artists within the promotion and is quite a BJJ ace, and I believe this is his best opportunity for victory in this matchup on Saturday March 27th. Although Ortega doesn’t land a lot of takedowns per 15 minutes, I believe if he can just land one against the champion, he controls Volkanovski on the ground and will find a submission for the victory. This is definitely a tough fight for both men as both are well rounded, but on the feet the advantage is definitely the champion’s but on the ground it should be the Ortega show. This is truly a fight I could see going all 25 minutes, and not having a clear cut winner when going to the judge’s scorecards. I think this is definitely a contender for fight of the night and possibly fight of the year, however, we will have to wait and see until these two are face to face inside the octagon.
Image: From sportskeeda.com
Tyron Woodley vs Vincente Luque
This might be the final opportunity for Woodley inside the octagon, he needs this win to stay relevant in what is an extremely crowded 170 pound division. Woodley’s fall from grace has just been a combination of factors that have led to this quite rapid decline. Obviously, the biggest factor is losing the title to champion Kamaru Usman, where Woodley was just utterly dominated. Another factor in this matchup is how Woodley has been labeled as a “boring” fighter especially in his matchup with Damien Maia which still holds the fewest strikes attempted in a title fight within the UFC. Woodley being labeled a boring fighter already will knockout him out of favor with UFC President Dana White, another rift happened between the two when it seemed as though Woodley was ducking contenders as the champion citing only wanting money fights against unranked competitors such as GSP and Nick Diaz.
The final nail in Woodley’s UFC run right now has been the losing skid he has been on as well. Woodley has lost three straight fights to Usman, Burns, and a bitter rival in Colby Covington. Normally, former champions can have a little bit more leeway when on a skid but with a fighter who is already out of favor with the UFC brass, it doesn’t look good for the former champion.
Woodley has a tough opponent standing across the octagon from him in a rising contender in Vincente Luque, who is currently on a two fight win streak, and only losing to a top Welterweight in Stephen Thompson. Luque has to keep the fight standing and strike with Woodley in order to be able to look for the finish and keep moving up the Welterweight rankings. A victory, especially a finish over a former champion in Woodley, could easily be used as a bargaining tool to get a fight with a top 5 contender. Luque is currently sitting at #10 in the Welterweight rankings, and a victory should move him up to at least #7. This fight has some serious implications revolving around Woodley’s ability to get a victory and if he does, it could keep him in the promotion.
Image: From UFC
Sean O’Malley vs Thomas Almeida
This is the final fight that I would be going over on this pretty stacked PPV, as a fan favorite in “Suga” Sean returns to action. The return of “Suga” is going down on the 27th as he makes his return for the first time since his injury against Marlon Vera, which ended up resulting in his first professional loss inside of the octagon. O’Malley garnered a lot of fan support after three performance bonuses in a row with two being TKO’s.
This is another big test for O’Malley as he faces someone who was at one point considered to be a top 5 bantamweight challenger in Thomas Almeida. O’Malley is faced with a tough challenge and he will definitely need to rely on his reach advantage and his striking to be able to hang with Almeida. Almeida is another fighter who is on a three fight skid on the octagon and 1-4 in his last 5 fights. Almeida at a time was another undefeated fighter before running into a top tier Cody Garbrandt and suffering his first professional loss. He did rebound with a win over Albert Morales, but has now taken three losses in a row to JImmie Rivera, Rob Font, and Johnathan Martinez. This is another do or die fight on this card, because this could keep Almeida relevant if he is able to defeat O’Malley. Almeida needs to find a way in this fight to close the distance and capitalize on misses by O’Malley and counter. Almeida could also look to use some grappling within the fight and take the fight to the ground, which is a more uncomfortable spot for O’Malley.
Although Almeida normally does not perform on the ground, I think that is his best option in this fight as O’Malley’s height and reach advantage is such a factor in this matchup. O’Malley’s big key to victory is just to keep the striking at range and constantly tag Almeida and possibly build up to a later round TKO finish. I do not think O’Malley needs to focus on landing one huge power shot to finish the fight if he preserves his gas tank and continually puts Almeida on the back foot it’ll work out very well for him.
One big X-factor in this fight is O’Malley’s own preparation and mental state heading into this fight as some outlets and rightfully so have labeled him cocky and completely shoving off the loss he took to Vera. O’Malley has a right to be confident as he was dominating his opponents in a lot of the fights under the UFC banner, however, he has not yet become a champion and needs to be quite a few more elite level bantamweights before he acts as if he was on the level of Conor McGregor during his title reign.
I think O’Malley can dominate this fight if he is in the right mindset and takes the challenge seriously as he has the talent to be a former champion in the UFC, and fans definitely have support behind him.
UFC 260 is going to be a fantastic card, and as long as all the fighters make weight this is another strong showing for the UFC.