This Saturday’s fight card is one that promises to be full of changes to a lot of rankings throughout the UFC. There is obviously the headlining bout between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler for the vacant Lightweight championship. In the co-main event you have Tony Ferguson trying to regain some momentum at 155 against Beneil Dariush. Up until May 11th as well Jack Hermansson was supposed to face Edmen Shahbazyan but that has been moved to the May 22nd card according to MMAFighting.
I think this card is well put together from top to bottom with even the headlining bout on the prelims being Jacare Souza going against Andre Muniz. I want to truly dive into these 3 bouts on the card though as I feel those have the most impact going forward for the promotion and the implications it possibly has for shaking up rankings.
#1 Jacare Souza vs Andre Muniz (Middleweight [185 lbs])
Image: From MMAIndia
At one point in time Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza seemed to be lobbying to be in the UFC title picture going back to his days in Strikeforce and how he exploded onto the UFC scene picking up 5 straight wins, 4 of which came by stoppage. However, those days are long behind him as he struggled against some of the top fighters in his weight class and a short stint at Light Heavyweight saw him drop a decision to the “Legendary Polish Power” of current champion Jan Blachowicz. Jacare before that also had lost a fight to Jack Hermansson on his rise up the card as well main-eventing a fight night card. Most recently he loss to the supersonic rise of Kevin Holland in 2020 when he was knocked out inside of Holland’s guard. Everyone will definitely remember that knockout as it is definitely a candidate for knockout of the year.
This is the cold truth of Mixed Martial Arts is that the old fighters are fed to the new breed in order to build their name up and unfortunately I feel we are beginning to see the end of one of the best submission artists that has ever been in the octagon. Unfortunately at 41 years old any sort of title run seems like a thing of the past for Jacare as the body can only take so much damage over the course of a career, and if Jacare does lose this matchup it would be his fourth straight loss and the UFC is not always easy going when an older fighter is on the way out.
The idea of retirement has to be looming over Jacare and maybe the fighter still has a few tricks up his sleeves in order to stay relevant within the promotion. The question has to be asked however, if he does lose this fight and especially if he does get finished, will he retire in the cage?
The man standing across from him is Andre Muniz a 31 year old accomplished Jiu-Jitsu fighter who is still a relative newcomer to the UFC. He debuted on the contender series and has since reeled off four straight victories. His last fight inside the promotion was against Bartosz Fabinski this past September. He has not faced a lot of name value competition and this is the first opponent that has recognizable value.
Being 31 is definitely putting him in a strong place to use his prime years to charge up what is an extremely strong division at the moment. I am sure Muniz is hungry to start facing some of the elite ranked fighters in the UFC and if he finishes Souza in impressive fashion it could be enough to get him into the top 15 as well as getting him a ranked opponent for his next fight. Muniz being 20-4 is an impressive resume especially when you consider the fact that 14 of those victories came by way of submission.
I feel as though the unfortunate side of MMA when the old are fed to the young is going to happen here and I foresee Muniz picking up a first or second round submission victory, possibly a performance of the night and unfortunately possibly retiring Jacare Souza on Saturday night. This is a fight on the prelims that should be entertaining.
#2. Tony Ferguson (#5) vs Beneil Dariush (#9) (Lightweight [155 lbs])
Image: From MMANews.com.
The co-main event of UFC 262 features arguably someone who will go down as the best lightweight fighter to never capture the title. Tony Ferguson has brought highlight reel finishes to the octagon since his days on the Ultimate Fighter and his 12 fight unbeaten streak through the division is the stuff of legend. However, his five cancelled fights with arguably the GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov and his recent losing spell may put a dampening on what has otherwise been a fantastic career.
Tony has spent a decade within the UFC winning his Ultimate Fighter season against Ramsey Najim by a first round TKO. Tony won three straight before suffering his first loss in the UFC to Michael Johnson. The unbeaten streak Tony compiled in his time in what is arguably the toughest and most talent rich division in the UFC is something to be proud of but I think Tony wants the belt. However, it seems whatever mojo or game plan Tony had during that time has begun to evaporate. This could be a multitude of things but I partially believe it to be partly due to age. Tony is 37 years old so the glory days of his prime career years are fading into the sunset and capturing the 155 pounds strap seems to be heading more towards a distant memory than a future goal.
This fight has to be Do or Die for Tony if he wants to prove that he deserves at least to be in the title conversation at lightweight. HIs last two fights have gone on the negative side with being dismantled and frankly embarrassed by Justin Gaethje in their fight for the interim strap. His most recent fight was losing a unanimous decision after 15 minutes in the cage with the man fighting for the undisputed title in Charles Oliveira.
Tony’s style I believe benefits him in this fight as he is still very unorthodox and similar to what recent KO Jiří Procházka has stated is always in the “flow”. I still believe Tony is an elite competitor, but struggling against the top guys may send him back down the card and force him to possibly garner somewhat of a “Journeyman” reputation. I hope Tony proves me wrong because at one time I felt Tony was the most dangerous guy at 155 possibly even more so than Conor.
The man in the cage across from Tony has been no slouch either during his time with the promotion, and is looking to finally reach the pinnacle of Lightweight. Beneil Dariush has been with the UFC since 2014 and has complied a very impressive 14-4 record inside the octagon during that time. He is currently on a 6 fight winning streak of his own and his last loss came back in 2018. At 32 years old this is the prime of Dariush and before that talent begins to fade he needs to capitalize with a win over major competition at 155.
Dariush on his win streak has defeated some talented guys towards the bottom of the rankings and unranked guys but has beaten guys such as Michael Johnson, James VIck, and Jim Miller previously. His losses at Lightweight have come against Edson Barboza, Michael Chiesa both of whom are very solid competitors. I think a victory here for Dariush definitely makes an argument to put him into the top 5 and maybe not get a title shot but face off against someone such as Justin Gaethje, or a McGregor fight after the Poirier trilogy.
I think my official prediction for this fight is that Dariush keeps on winning he has looked so impressive as of late, and although the power of Ferguson or a slick D’Arce choke is always lurking I just think father time has caught up with Tony and this will be a real challenge for the former interim champion.
#3. Charles Oliveira (#3) vs Michael Chandler (#4) (Lightweight Championship [155 lbs])
Image: From Oddshark
The retirement becoming official for the arguable G.O.A.T. Khabib Nurmagomedov means that Saturday’s main event will crown a new undisputed lightweight champion. Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier settle their trilogy in July, Charles Oiliveira and Michael Chandler will be deciding who gets the belt wrapped around their waist. The two competitors took two completely different paths getting to this moment, but this fight promises to be something special for those in attendance.
Michael Chandler may be a little bit unknown to UFC fans if that is the only MMA promotion that they partake in. However, Chandler’s resume is lined with huge finishes from the Bellator mainstay as he dominated their 155 pound division for a decade. Chandler’s has fantastic knockout power and that was on full display when he knocked out lightweight contender Dan Hooker in his debut fight back in 2020. Chandler explained he left Bellator in pursuit of facing the best lightweights in the world, and he has the opportunity to reign atop Bellator’s biggest rival if he can land some of those power shots.
Charles Oliveira has been a UFC mainstay for a long time and has made his name and legacy grow inside the UFC octagon. Oliveira holds the UFC record with 14 submissions victories, and if he gets a hold of a certain extremity it can be fight ending. Oliveira is on an 8 fight winning streak inside of the octagon and has truly found his home at lightweight, and looks to reach the pinnacle of the division. This is going to be such an exciting matchup because both fighters have been in MMA for a long time and sometimes were overlooked as true top guys but recent success has been very important for both in beginning to change fan’s opinions.
Chandler was very overlooked as he fought for Bellator and so many casual fans felt because he was not in the UFC that his style would not translate well or that he could not hang with “elite” lightweights. I think the victory over Hooker proved that wrong but I personally would’ve liked to see Chandler in one more fight with a top 5 guy but he is definitely a title contender.
Oliveira I think will take this because of the streak that he is on and stylistically I think he can avoid the power of Chandler and get the fight to the mat. Chandler has strong takedown defense but Oliveira is so persistent and dominant at getting the fight to the ground that I think even without a finish constant pressure and control time would play a huge factor in the decision as well.
My official prediction is that Oliveira walks out of the arena at the end of the night as the new lightweight champion after a 4th round submission. I also think this will be the fight of the night.