Another weekend and once again another great PPV card for the UFC. This card is headlined by two title fights and an under card with all kinds of title implications.
UFC 263 promises to settle some rivalries and as long as all the fighters make weight should be great for the company.
On the main card I pretty much want to dive into all of the fights and what they mean as well as giving everyone my personal opinion to how I think the fight will play out.
Paul Craig vs Jamahal Hill (Light Heavyweight) (205 lbs)
Image: From MMAJunkie
This bout has two men who are attempting to break into the elite competition , Paul Craig has been in the UFC for several years but has yet to really get the ground going unfortunately losing as many bouts as he has won in his UFC tender. Although he has faced a legend in Mauricio “Shogun” Rua he has not faced a lot of top tier competition, and probably could be bordering on that line of being let go from the promotion if he does unfortunately lose. Jamahal HIll on the other hand has a completely perfect MMA record outside of 2 NC’s racking up 2 finishes in his three victories. His most recent victory came in a bout with OSP back in December of 2020 with a second round TKO.
Jamahal Hill has been able to so far impress coming up through the Contender Series and beating someone who has hung around in the UFC for a while this could catapult Hill into contention for a top 15 ranked opponent. 205 is still a solid division albeit without former champion Jon Jones reigning. Champion Jan Blachowicz has stopped several challengers so far and being able to get another finish could make a case for Hill to really hop into the rankings.
I think when previewing this matchup that its going to be a fight on the feet I do not see either man going for a lot of groundwork as I think both want to stay on the feet and looking for the finish. Paul Craig does normally land around 2 takedowns per fight but I believe Hill will use his 53% takedown defense to stay fighting. Hill has to be one of the best workers in the feet for the UFC landing an absolutely huge average of 7.90 significant strikes per minute on the feet.
My prediction for this fight: Hill by 2nd round KO/TKO. I feel Craig will come out early looking for the takedown however, Hill is going to find a way to keep the fight standing and then just batter away at the face of Craig. I feel as though eventually the pressure will just be too much and he’ll find a clean shot to finish.
#9 Demian Maia vs #12 Belal Muhammad (Welterweight) (170 lbs)
Image: From MMAJunkie
Maia might be far removed of his days challenging Anderson Silva for the Middleweight strap but the crafty veteran still is one of the most accomplished grapplers on the UFC roster. The 43 year old would have quite a long way back to a title shot considering he faced former champion Tyron Woodley in 2017 in one of the worst Title fights in recent UFC memory.
Maia still has garnered a lot of slick submissions in his time with the promotion and I feel as though the second he takes someone’s back in a fight it is only a matter of time before the choke is synched in and someone either taps out or goes to sleep. Maia is currently on a 1 fight losing streak to former title challenger Gilbert Burns who is definitely a force at 170. However, before the fight Maia had ran up three straight victories over Lyman Good, Anthony Martin, and the former undefeated One Champion Ben Askren. Maia’s ability to take on strong opponents within the top 15 is still there I just feel as though someone inside of the top 5 is asking a lot of him. I can be proven wrong though as observing the late career of Randy Couture shows that sometimes the Old Man still has it.
The key for Maia in this fight is obviously getting the fight to the ground and beginning to work his elite submission game which I feel he has a massive advantage over Belal Muhammad. Maia is obviously not a striker landing only 1.82 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career. Maia normally lands somewhere around 3 takedowns per 15 minute fight and so if he can get Belal to the ground I think his control time will rise very high as he looks either for a choke or some sort of joint manipulation.
His opponent in this matchup is not a slouch by any means holding an impressive 18-3 MMA record. Although he might not be known for insane power he is a very talented and accurate striker in the cage which I feel is the advantage for him in this fight. Belal Muhammad in his UFC career averages 4.75 significant strikes per minute which is quite impressive when you couple that with his 43% accuracy rate. Belal is going to push the pressure on someone like Maia and look to continually land strikes just peppering him for 15 minutes. As I said the key for Maia is getting the fight to the ground this is a problem however considering Muhammad has a very high 85% takedown defense rate during his time with the UFC.
I feel as though Muhammad can keep the fight standing and continue to fire shots off at Maia he could either grind out a U-decision or possibly get a TKO finish something which he has not done inside the octagon since his second UFC fight back in 2016. He has a performance of the night bonus for a RNC over Takashi Sato in 2019, so he does have some experience grappling but is obviously not on the same level as someone like Maia. This fight means a lot to both men as both want to climb the rankings and begin facing higher level opponents.
My official prediction for this fight: Belal Muhammad wins a unanimous decision. I just feel in this fight Muhammad is going to just use his wrestling to keep the fight standing, push the pressure and just jab and cross Maia all the way through 15 minutes.
#3 Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz (Welterweight) (170 lbs)
Image: From UFC.com
This is one of the three fights that has been highly publicized for this fight card as Diaz is a needle mover and the return of top contender Leon Edwards has been sought after for sometime. Nate Diaz at Welterweight has been something that is somewhat of an oddity as he currently only holds a 4-4 record in the division but his ability to draw PPV numbers is something that is sought after in the UFC.
Diaz has been a mainstay in the UFC for a long time now as was very strong through his stretch at Lightweight in the UFC competing for a title against Benson Henderson at one time. Diaz however has been on and off active in the last few years with his most recent fight coming in his lost to Jorge Masvidal for the BMF belt back in 2019. Diaz has a lot of solid boxing and Jiu-Jitsu skills but is smaller in comparison than a lot of true Welterweights because he does not really have to cut weight to make 170. Diaz has decent striking defense and finds ways to move out of the way with 53% striking defense. I think Diaz has to be elusive in this fight and find ways to avoid getting hit clean by Edwards.
The obvious advantage for Diaz is his ground game in comparison to Edwards. I feel as though to be able to find a way to secure a victory the fight will primarily have to take place on the mat, and Diaz needs to add up a decent amount of control time.
Leon Edwards has had some trouble finding top tier opponents at 170 and some in the MMA community feel as though many are ducking Edwards and avoiding trying to fight the English kickboxer. Edwards is on a currently 8 fight winning streak in the division outside of the No Contest due to the eye poke in his matchup with Belal Muhammad. Not only is Edward’s winning streak extremely impressive but he also had a previous matchup with the current champion Usman back in 2015, although he lost by decision.
A victory in this fight for Edwards has to result in a title fight as there are not many other matchups outside of Edwards vs Usman to make at 170. Edwards way to victory should be keeping the fight on the feet and looking for a fight. Although Edwards does not have a massive amount of finishes on his record this is similar to the narrative we heard about Usman before he ascended to the throne of Welterweight.
I think the striking of Edwards still has the ability to knock someone like Nate Diaz out, but even if he does win by a decision I still feel as though it is a hard matchup to ignore and fans should want to see the rematch between Usman & Edwards.
My prediction for this fight: Edwards by 2nd round TKO. Although it has been three years since Edwards last finish in a victory he has the power and ability to find a finish. Edwards just needs to be accurate with his striking and land just a clean strike. I think this will be a very even matchup but I just see Edwards being able to land a clean strike, I think if Diaz wants to see his success return to what it once was he needs to go back to 155 lbs.
Deiveson Figueiredo (Champion) vs #1 Brandon Moreno (Flyweight) (125 lbs)
Image: From MMAFighting.com
The first of the two title fights on this card promises to be absolutely fantastic. This fight is a rematch from the draw they had back at UFC 256 in December. The Flyweights normally get a bad rap as to be boring due to lack of finishes or knockout power, but the 5 round clinic both men put on really was a phenomenal performance.
The champion Deiveson FIgueiredo has been very strong for the 125 pounders since capturing the belt versus Joseph Benavidez. The only loss “Figgy” has suffered in his MMA career is a loss to Jussier Formiga but that isn’t someone we will see contending for a title unless he gets on a win streak again. Figueiredo lands pretty consistently on the feet with a significant strike per minute average at 3.38 according to UFC.com. Another area where he excels is his submission attempts in a fight where he averages 2.4 per 15 minutes in the cage. Figueiredo knows how to hit on the feet as well as getting a submission to secure the victory as well. Until the previous Moreno fight Figgy was on a 4 fight finishing streak including 3 submissions and 1 TKO against Joseph Benavidez in their first matchup.
Figueiredo being able to pickup a victory in this rematch would continue to solidify him as a legitimate top guy within the UFC. The fight definitely has the possibility to go all 25 minutes but I feel getting the fight to the ground might be the best plan for Figueiredo if he wants to begin working his submission game. Although Moreno is an accomplished wrestler and therefore trying to get the fight there might be difficult the champion does have a 50% takedown accuracy rate. If he does elect to keep the fight standing and Moreno looks to go to the ground the champion does have a very high 61% takedown defense rate as well. Either place that this fight takes place it is going to be extremely competitive as we saw in the first fight the two fighters are very evenly matched.
Brandon Moreno “The Assassin Baby” has been in the UFC since 2016 and has amassed 10 fights during that time. Although he has had some ups and down he is on a 3 fight winning streak outside the draw in the first matchup with Figueiredo. Moreno’s winning streak started with two unanimous decision victories before grabbing a 1st round TKO finish against Brandon Royval at UFC 255. Moreno similar to the that of the champion is quite well rounded landing 3.41 significant strikes per minute on the feet while also averaging 2 takedowns per 15 minutes according to UFC.com.
Both men are going to be in a test of who’s game plan is implemented better as this is a rematch so both men are familiar with each other already. I think this fight will have some decent ground control time but I think they may elect to spend a little bit more time on the feet. In the first matchup between the two the strikes were 137-132 Figueiredo but both men landed multiple takedowns and obviously both men have the gas tank to go the full 25 minutes.
This is honestly the closest fight on the card for me but my official prediction is Figueiredo by a 4th round Submission. I just think both men know what they are expecting to see from their opponent but I think the champion is in the spot he is in for a reason and the ability he has to snag a submission is I think an advantage over Moreno in this matchup. This fight could go either way but I think the champion retains in this case.
Israel Adesanya (Champion) vs #3 Marvin Vettori (Middleweight) (185 lbs)
Image: From CBSSports
The Main Event of this card is also a rematch but this time with the Middleweights and one of the UFC’s biggest stars. Israel Adesanya burst into the UFC in 2018 with a performance of the night winning bout versus Rob Wilkinson with a 2nd round TKO. Adesanya did not lose in 9 UFC bouts on route to the title and the first loss on his record came against Jan Blachowicz when Adesanya attempted to jump up in weight to 205 pounds and become a double champion.
The king of the Middleweights is back at 185 for this bout and he is rematching the man he beat in his second UFC bout in Marvin Vettori. Looking back at the first fight the less hyped Izzy fought a hard 15 minutes to pickup a split decision back in 2018. Looking at the numbers Izzy’s striking was on point and he out-struck Vettori 57 to 46. Vettori did land two takedowns but in the mind in enough of the judges Adesanya did enough to secure the victory.
Adesanya and Vettori were not the stars they are now and so this matchup has had to build as both men have taken different routes to the title picture. Adesanya put on multiple clinics since joining the UFC and gained a ton of following for his personality as well as his performance bonus winning style.
A rematch is always an oddity in MMA because both fighters have improved and knowing each other have to make adjustments because their opponent knows in some ways what to expect when stepping into the cage.
Adesanya is one of the most talented strikers on the roster averaging 3.95 significant strikes per minute but there is a lot of power in them and due to his pressure and just constantly unloading on opponents when those strikes hit clean they do serious damage. Both Adesanya and Vettori are hard to hit however as Adesnya has 61% striking defense and Vettori has 66%.
Both men in this fight are going to have to work to land clean shots. In his most recent victory Adesanya out-struck Paulo Costa 55 to 12 and ended the fight with a 2nd round KO/TKO. Adesanya is probably going to try and keep the fight standing because that has been his weak point is working of his back. Adesanya is normally quite good at staying on the feet with a high 82% takedown defense. Also, helping here is the bigger cage being back at a normal arena and not the UFC Apex.
In the first fight Vettori did land 2 takedowns but I feel as though Adesanya’s defense has evolved since then. The key for Adesanya is to hit early and often keep the pressure on Vettori, and just find the open shots for strikes.
Marvin Vettori since his loss to Adesanya has yet to lose at 185 pounds picking up 5 straight victories. Only one of the victories was a finish being his first round submission win over Karl Roberson but Vettori has dominated all the fights during this run. He averages over 4 significant strikes per minute according to UFC.com and his ability to get the fight to the floor is what matters against someone like Adesanya. His most recent fight was a Unanimous decision victory over Kevin Holland where he landed 11 takedowns during the course of the fight.
Vettori averages 53% takedown success rate and he has to get the fight to the floor versus Adesanya. He also cannot let himself get backed into a corner or let Adesanya close off his circling attempts because once Izzy traps you it is only a matter of time before you’re going into unconsciousness. Vettori needs to be smart with his counter strikes and look for takedowns.
Marvin knows his wrestling is an extremely strong skill of his and being able to hold Adesanya down has now been done and if he studies what Jan did to control Adesanya then Vettori has a game plan for victory. I think Vettori definitely needs to be mindful of his gas tank because Adesanya likes a quick pace and so he needs to make sure the pace slows down and they can go all 25 minutes if need be.
I feel Vettori has the right skill set to throw Adesanya off his game but he needs to make sure he does not make any mistakes striking because as soon as Adesanya sees a hole he’s going to take advantage.
My official prediction for the: Adesanya retains by 3rd round KO. I think Vettori is going to come out very strong early but he knows striking with Izzy is a bad idea and I think we could see some sort of flying knee KO or something like that on a takedown attempt.