The NBA Finals will showcase two-teams that mirror each other in a multitude of ways, but their playing styles couldn’t be more different. The Celtics hold their hat on the defensive side of the floor, while the Warriors look to shoot teams out of the gym.
Representing the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics will be making their first Finals appearance since 2010. A young core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart propelled the Celtics to playoff series wins against Kevin Durant’s Nets, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks, and Jimmy Butler’s Bulls. Jayson Tatum has solidified as a superstar in this league, playing and winning at an elite level.
Representing the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors will be making their sixth Finals appearance in the last eight seasons. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green will be searching for their fourth title, cementing their dynasty even further. The road to the Finals hasn’t been much of a challenge for this high-flying Warriors team as they have a 12-4 record in the playoffs. The Warriors took care of Nikola Jokic’s Nuggets, a young Grizzlies team, and Luka Doncic’s Mavericks to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals.
The Celtics and Warriors have a history
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While the Celtics and Warriors don’t play each other often, but when they do, it’s often a great game. The last six times that they’ve played, four of the games have been decided by five points or fewer.
But, the results have often been positive for the Celtics. The C’s have won seven of their last 10 against the Warriors, and have won their last four games in Golden State.
During the Steve Kerr era in Golden State, the Celtics are the only team to have a winning record against the Warriors. Over the last seven seasons, the Celtics have a higher winning percentage against the Warriors than any other team in the NBA. The C’s are 9-5 against them over the last seven years.
Now, will that have any impact on this series? I don’t think that it’ll mean a whole lot come opening tip. The NBA Finals is a completely different animal than the regular season. However, I don’t think it’s completely meaningless, the Celtics have clearly been doing something right against the Warriors. The Celtics success against Golden State in the past is absolutely worth mentioning.
The Experience Factor
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The Warriors have something that the Celtics don’t have, and that’s Finals experience. The Warriors have played a combined 123 Finals games, while the Celtics have a combined 0. This is obviously a huge difference in experience, but will it make a difference?
I don’t think that experience is the end-all be-all, but I think it will show up early on in the series. The Warriors have the luxury of playing the first two games at home, so the Celtics will have to start with a hostile, road environment. But, to be fair, the C’s have been one of the best road teams in the NBA in both the regular season and the playoffs. Ultimately, experience in late-game situations will benefit the Warriors.
The Celtics and Warriors are more similar than people think
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The Celtics and Warriors both have had success in finding home grown talent via the NBA Draft. The NBA has certainly seen the creation of super teams over the last ten years, but these two teams have a current core that was primarily created from the NBA Draft.
Six of the top-eight rotation players for the Celtics were drafted by the team. The same can be said for the Warriors, as six of their top-eight rotation players were drafted by the team. These teams have hit on their lottery picks, their late-first rounds picks, and this has allowed them to have some success. It’s absolutely refreshing to see, especially in a league that has become driven by superstars capitalizing on their mobility whether it’s via trade or free agency.
X-Factors to look out for
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Guys like Steph Curry and Jayson Tatum are don’t need any explanation on their ability to impact this series. But, in an NBA Finals series, we often see secondary players step up and make a huge difference when it matters most.
For the Celtics, the obvious choice is Marcus Smart. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year award winner will likely have his hands full in defending Steph Curry. Smart has had some success against Steph Curry in the past, but dealing with Curry in a series, will be a huge challenge. If Smart is able to have some success, and is able to frustrate Curry, it will bode well for the Celtics. If Curry is able to capitalize, and take advantage of Marcus Smart, then the Warriors will likely coast to another championship.
Smart also acts as a facilitator for the C’s, and is often the primary ball-handler offensively. He often gets scrutiny for his streaky shooting woes, but if he’s able to get hot from three-point range, the Celtics will be a tough team to defend.
When it comes to the Warriors, Jordan Poole is someone that can change the series for the Warriors. Poole burst onto the scene for the Warriors, averaging 18.5 points per game this season. Poole saw an uptick in minutes when Steph Curry was out of the lineup, and he really was a spark plug for this Warriors team. But, once Curry returned and the Warriors got back to full strength, Poole went back to the bench. He can get hot quick, and can change a game quick. If the Celtics aren’t able to limit his productivity, he can be a sneaky killer off the bench. He may not get talked about as much as Curry, Thompson, and Green, but he can score at will.
Series Prediction
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I think this NBA Finals will be one of the best Finals that we’ve had in quite some time. It’s filled with star-power, storylines, and legacy’s can be be enhanced and created. I ultimately think this series will start with an opening statement from the Warriors. They have had the most rest, and clearly the most experience, so I expect them to come out firing on all cylinders. I’m expecting the Warriors to have their way with the Celtics in Game 1, but, I don’t think the series will be anywhere near done at this point.
The Celtics have been on the best road teams in the playoffs, and I expect them to steal Game 2 in Golden State. I think the series will be a back-and-forth affair, that will lead to a Game 7 in Golden State.
But, I ultimately am going with the Celtics to come out on top. I think the Celtics will be able to pick their spots, and pick their matchups offensively, and that will lead to success. In particular, Jaylen Brown against Klay Thompson is a favorable matchup for Boston. I also think that the Celtics will be able to do just enough defensively, to limit Golden State’s knockdown series. There’s no shot that the Celtics are going to take Curry out of the game, but they can limit the guys around him. The Celtics utilized a similar game plan against the Bucks.
The Celtics will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time since 2008.
Who Wins the MVP?
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The popular pick for the Finals MVP award is either Steph Curry or Jayson Tatum. But, I’m actually going a little outside the box with my pick.
Jaylen Brown is my pick to win the MVP award, as I think he’ll show up BIG in this entire series. Brown will have the opportunity to take advantage of his matchup with Klay Thompson defending him, and I think he’ll be able to put up huge offensive numbers.
Brown averaged 23 points per game against the Warriors this season, and I expect that number to hit around 25-26 points per game. This isn’t an inditement on Jayson Tatum, I just feel that Brown will have a more favorable matchup, and Jayson Tatum may act more as a facilitator at times in this series.