For the second consecutive offseason, the Patriots will be in the market for a quarterback. After a disappointing 2020 campaign, in which the Patriots finished 7-9, they’ll be back to the drawing board at the games most important position. The Patriots enter 2021 with over $65 million in cap space, which could help the cause. How will they look to address the most important position on the field? Do they look at free agency? Do they look at the trade market? Let’s analyze every potential non-rookie quarterback option:
Cam Newton
Cam Newton will be a free agent at the end of the season, after signing a one-year $1.75 million contract with the Patriots, last June. The marriage between Cam Newton and the Patriots could be best categorized as a disaster. For the first time since 2008, the Patriots will miss out on the playoffs. Newton has been a monumental disappointment in New England, regressing throughout the season. The Patriots’ offense was methiodal, and the pass-game was abysmal for the better part of the season. They ranked 27th in points per game, and 30th in passing yards in 2020. Newton threw for less than 100 passing yards in three games this season, and was benched a handful of times throughout the season. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that he believes that the Patriots and Newton will likely part this offseason. But, with Bill Belichick’s continuous praise of Newton, maybe that isn’t the case…
Pros: The price to resign Cam Newton will be very cheap, likely costing less than $3 million. Newton could also benefit from having a full offseason of work. On top of that, Patriots coaches have been in love with Newton’s leadership skills.
Cons: Cam Newton is 6-15 in his last 21 starts, and has only thrown for more than 300 yards, three times in his last 16 starts. It’s obvious that Newton has regressed, as he ranks 29th in QBR this season, and 30th in passer rating. His mechanics are a mess, and he’s just not a good enough pocket passer to succeed at a high level. His mechanics have caused his accuracy to really falter, he truly was inconsistent from throw-to-throw. On top of that, he has also proven that he has some durability concerns. He was certainly dealing with some sort of injury this season, and I don’t think his body can hold up.
Verdict: I would stay away from Cam Newton in 2021. The reality was that he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL in 2020, and I don’t see his future trending in the right direction. He regressed this season, and at times, was a liability for the Patriots. I can’t see a scenario in which the Patriots bring him back. I think it’s likely that Newton ends up calling it quits this offseason, and retires.
Sam Darnold
The New York Jets looked like they were poised to land the coveted first-overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. But, after two consecutive wins over the Rams and the Browns, the Jets find themselves locked into the second-overall draft position. Which takes the Jets officially out of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Now, that does not necessarily mean that the Jets are out of the quarterback market. The Jets will have a new head coach at the helm, which could mean the end of Sam Darnold in New York. Darnold is 13-25 in 38 starts, throwing 39 interceptions with a 59.8% completion percentage. Sam Darnold is under contract for the next two seasons. Darnold will not be released by the Jets, the Patriots would need to acquire him via trade.
Pros: Sam Darnold is only 23 years old, and has dealt with constant adversity during his tenure the Jets. He’s been sacked 63 times in the last two seasons, and has not had the luxury of having skill position players at his disposal. Darnold developed a good connection with Robby Anderson in 2018 and 2019, as Anderson hauled in over 100 receptions during that span. But, when Anderson left for Carolina last offseason, the Jets never filled Anderson’s void in 2020. The Jets did not improve the offense from 2019 to 2020, and it showed in Darnold’s play. 37 year old Frank Gore was the team’s leading rusher in 2020, what else is there to say? The Jets ranked 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and ranked 31st in that department in 2019. Darnold has shown flashes, and certainly has the talent, of a third-overall draft pick. Darnold is still on his rookie contract, and only has a $9 million cap hit in 2021.
Cons: The Patriots have a lot of holes on their roster, and will have to give up draft capital to obtain Sam Darnold. In 2019, Josh Rosen was traded from the Cardinals to the Dolphins after one season, as the Dolphins dealt a second-round pick and a fifth-round pick to land Rosen. Darnold will likely cost more than Rosen did in terms of trade compensation. To land Darnold, it will likely cost a second-round pick and a fourth-round pick. On top of the trade compensation, what if Darnold is the problem in New York, not the people around him? By the end of the season, he’ll have passed through two coaching regimes. Not to mention, Darnold’s accuracy has been an issue. In 2020, he has a 59.6% completion percentage, which ranks 33th in the NFL. Darnold ranks last in the NFL in QBR, 32nd out of the 32 quarterbacks who qualify. Are we really sure that Sam Darnold is a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL?
Verdict: I find it hard to believe that the Jets would ever move their once franchise quarterback to their division rival. With the Jets failing to secure the first-overall pick, they may end up deciding to keep Sam Darnold. There is a substantial gap between Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the quarterbacks in this draft class, so the Jets may continue to hold onto Darnold. Regardless, unless somehow Darnold leaks into the free agent market, I can’t see the Jets swinging a deal of this magnitude with the Patriots.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick may be the true definition of a journeyman quarterback, but Fitzpatrick has had one of his best seasons in the NFL in 2020. Fitzpatrick appeared in nine games this season, winning five of them. Including, orchestrating a game winning drive against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Dolphins may have drafted Tua Tagovailoa in the first-round of the 2019 draft, but they have not been afraid to turn to Fitzpatrick when the offense is sputtering under Tua. Ryan Fitzpatrick is slated to become a free agent at the end of the season.
Pros: At age 38, Ryan Fitzpatrick has absolutely fulfilled expectations, and then some with the Dolphins. Fitzpatrick had a career high in completion percentage this season, at 68.5 %, which ranks seventh in the NFL. He also posted the highest QBR of his career. Fitzpatrick’s QBR is at 77.4, which ranks fifth in the NFL. He has proven that he can come into any situation and provide a spark. He’s been accurate throughout his career, which should bode well with Bill Belichick. He is a great mentor to have in a locker room, and could help groom a young quarterback. Not to mention, he’s very familiar with the AFC East, starting 47 games against the division.
Cons: Signing Ryan Fitzpatrick would only be a short term fix at the quarterback position. He’s 38 years old, and would not be part of the Patriots’ long-term fix at quarterback. Fitzpatrick would have to learn a new offense at 38 years old, and this could present problems for the Patriots offense. Fitzpatrick will likely cost up to $10 million in 2021, which will be a substantial pay raise from Cam Newton in 2020.
Verdict: If the Patriots elect to go the route of selecting a quarterback early on in the draft, Ryan Fitzpatrick could present himself as an appealing stop-gap. But, does Bill Belichick really want to pay upward of $10 million to a stop-gap? He certainly did not want to in 2020. But, I do believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick wouldn’t the worst option for Belichick and the Patriots. He may not have the upside as some others on this list, but at least you know what to expect from Fitzpatrick.
Philip Rivers
After 16 seasons with the Chargers, Philip Rivers signed a one-year $25 million contract with the Indianapolis Colts, last March. The 39 year old Rivers has had a solid season with the Colts, leading them to a playoff appearance. He’s taken care of the ball, and has been efficient after a sluggish start. He’s slated to become a free agent at the end of the season. It’s unclear if Rivers wants to continue playing football, but if he does, should the Patriots have interest in the future hall of famer?
Pros: Philip Rivers is 37-27 in his last four seasons, posting a winning record in three of the last four seasons. But, the thing that sticks off the page when it comes to Rivers is his durability. Since taking over the starting quarterback role in 2006, Rivers has never missed a start in his career. Including the playoffs, Rivers has made 248 consecutive starts. Only Brett Favre has started more consecutive games. Favre started 321 consecutive starts from 1992 to 2010. Rivers also has been able to limit the number of turnovers this season. Rivers has only threw 11 interceptions, his career low is nine.
Cons: The Colts paid Philip Rivers $25 million this season, so, I suspect that Rivers will be looking for a contract that will guarantee him at least $20 million in 2021. If the Patriots wanted to pay a hefty sum for a soon to be 40-year-old quarterback, they would have kept Tom Brady. Rivers does not have the arm strength he used to have, and I imagine that it will get worse as time progresses.
Verdict: I personally believe that Philip Rivers will hang up the cleats at the end of the season, but even if he doesn’t, there isn’t much of a chance that the Patriots would pay over $20 million for a one-season rental.
Jacoby Brissett
Jacoby Brissett was selected in the third-round of the 2016 NFL draft, by the Patriots. Brissett made two starts for the Patriots, going 1-1. But, after being behind Jimmy Garoppolo and Tom Brady, the Patriots elected to trade Brissett to the Colts for wide receiver, Philip Dorsett. Since joining the Colts, Brissett has a 11-19 record as a starter. He was forced to be the emergency starter once Andrew Luck announced his retirement in August of 2019, leading the Colts to an 7-8 record in 15 starts. Brissett will be a free agent at the end of the season.
Pros: Jacoby Brissett has some familiarity with the Patriots’ offensive system, which is crucial for the Patriots in 2021. Not having continuity on offense was a big problem for the Patriots in 2020, and adding Brissett in free agency would give the Patriots some semblance of getting on the same page offensively. Brissett has also proven to be suitable game manager who won’t turn the ball over. Last season, in 15 starts, Brissett only had six interceptions. He takes care of the ball, and in the Patriots offense, taking care of the ball is the number one priority. Brissett would likely cost between $10-$15 million annually.
Cons: Jacoby Brissett may not turn the ball over, but has proven that he does not have what it takes to be a franchise quarterback. If the Patriots bring in Brissett, he would only be a short-term answer, and a stop-gap to a franchise quarterback. Brissett did not do enough to push the needle for the Colts, causing them to sign Philip Rivers this past-season.
Verdict: Jacoby Brissett is as average as it gets, but it would not be the worst case scenario for the Patriots. If the Patriots go with the stop-gap route, Brissett makes sense. He knows the system, and won’t cost a hefty price. The Patriots reuniting with Jacoby Brissett could be a realistic scenario if things align. Everyone knows how important connections are in football.
Gardner Minshew
The Jaguars selected Gardner Minshew in the sixth-round of the 2019 draft. Minshew entered Jacksonville with little expectations, but after an impressive training camp in 2019, Minshew found himself second in the quarterback depth chart behind Nick Foles. But, during week one of the 2019 season, Nick Foles broke his left clavicle forcing him to miss an extended period of time. Minshew played well in Foles’ absence, throwing 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions in 12 starts. Minshew posted a quarterback rating of 91.3, and many people in Jacksonville believed that Minshew was the answer at quarterback. But, 2020 took a turn for the worst for Minshew. A thumb injury caused Minshew to miss time, and Minshe struggled to get into a rhythm. In 2020, he was 1-7 as a starter, with a QBR of 52.4, which ranks 26th in the NFL. With the Jets beating the Browns last week, the Jaguars clinched the first-overall pick of the NFL Draft. Officially winning the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, which will likely end the Gardner Minshew era in Jacksonville. Minshew is under contract for two more seasons, so the Patriots would have to trade for him.
Pros: Gardner Minshew is only 24 years old, and has had some flashes of strong quarterback play. In 23 games, Minshew has tossed 37 touchdown passes and only 11 interceptions. He’s had some big moments in the second half of games. In his career, Minshew has had 17 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter. He is still on his rookie deal, which could be appealing for the Patriots from a money perspective.
Cons: Gardner Minshew may have put up some nice passing stats in the past two seasons, but only has a 7-13 record as a starter. At the end of the day, Bill Belichick and the Patriots care about wins, and Minshew has not been able to win many games in Jacksonville, hence why they the Jaguars have the first pick of the draft. Minshew will also cost the Patriots draft capital. It will likely not cost as much as Sam Darnold would, but would still likely cost a mid-round draft pick.
Verdict: Gardner Minshew could be an intriguing option for the Patriots for the right price. I’m not sold on Gardner Minshew as a franchise quarterback, but the thought of him coming in to compete for the starting quarterback job is not the end of the world. He’s still young, and has not been fortunate enough to be surrounded by good coaching. If the Patriots look to take a flyer on a couple guys this offseason, to see how it shakes out in training camp, throw Gardner Minshew’s name in the mix.
Tyrod Taylor
After Philip Rivers’ departure, Tyrod Taylor was slated to be the starting quarterback of the Chargers. However, Taylor only started one game before injuring his ribs. Even after suffering a rib injury, Taylor was still active and ready to play in the Chargers’ week two matchup against the Chiefs. But, just before kickoff the Chargers doctors were attempting to administer a pain-killing injection to his inured ribs , but they accidentally punctured his lung. This caused Taylor to miss some time, and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert took over. Herbert never looked back, and had one of the best rookie seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. Taylor has a career record of 24-21-1, and will become a free agent at the end of the season.
Pros: Tyrod Taylor has proven that can take care of the ball at a really remarkable level. In 72 games, Taylor has only thrown 20 interceptions. He’s really been able to take care of the ball throughout his career, which should be very appealing to Bill Belichick. Taylor’s last full season as a starter came with the Bills in 2017. Taylor was 8-6 in 14 starts, and led the Bills to the playoffs. In 2017, Taylor had an interception percentage of 1.0%, which was the lowest in the NFL. He also has quite a bit of experience in the AFC East. Taylor has an 11-10 record against AFC East opponents. Taylor will likely command around $7 to $10 million in 2021, which will be appealing to the Patriots.
Cons: Despite Taylor’s lack of turnovers, his teams don’t do a great job moving the ball. The 2017 Bills ranked 27th in the NFL in points per game, only averaging 17 points per game. His lack of pushing the needle ultimately led him to lose his job in Buffalo. Passing yards are an overrated stat, but Taylor does not accumulate a great deal of passing yards. The most he’s averaged in a season was 216.8 yards per game, and he did that in 2015. In 2020, that would rank 25th in the NFL. Taylor is the prototypical game manger, but can not elevate a team. Taylor has also never played an entire 16 game season.
Verdict: Tyrod Taylor could be a short term answer for the Patriots in 2021, but I don’t see him really elevating the Patriots. His accuracy and ability to protect the football makes him an appealing option. People may have forgotten about Taylor, bur in the right system he can be an average game manager. If the Patriots elect to look towards the draft for a long term answer at quarterback, and need a short-term solution for 2021, Tyrod Taylor could be a fit.
Marcus Mariota
Marcus Mariota was drafted second-overall by the Titans in the 2015 NFL Draft. His tenure with the Titans did not live up to the hype, and Mariota was benched in 2019 in favor of Ryan Tannehill. Mariota had a 29-32 record with the Titans, and was never able to put it all together. So, in 2020, Mariota became a free agent. He signed a two-year contract worth $17.6 million with the Raiders. Mariota backed up Derek Carr for the entire season, until week 15. When Carr went down with a groin injury, Mariota came off the bench and made some plays. In his lone appearance, Mariota was 17/28 for 226 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Mariota also had 88 rushing yards to go a long with his passing stats. Mariota has one season left on his contract, but has a $10.6 million cap hit in 2021. If Mariota were to join the Patriots it would likely have to be via trade. The Raiders are locked into Derek Carr, and with the cap going down, Mariota may find himself on the trade block.
Pros: Mariota took control of that Raiders offense and really played well off the bench. It’s not easy to come in off the bench, but Mariota really put on a good performance. Mariota has the ability to be mobile, which is definitely something the Patriots want in their next quarterback. In today’s NFL, quarterbacks need to be able to move in the pocket, and be dual-threats. Mariota has the ability to be that, and has shown that throughout his career. Mariota deserves a second opportunity to start in the NFL, and has shown he can succeed in short spurts if he has the correct pieces around him. Mariota made it to the playoffs in 2017, and actually one a playoff game.
Cons: The Patriots would have to give up some sort of draft capital to land Mariota. I’d imagine it would only take a late-round draft pick, but none the less, the Patriots would have to move a draft pick. On top of the draft compensation, basing a trade for Mariota off of one game is not a responsible decision. Matt Flynn comes to mind when a team makes a decision based on one game, but these are different circumstances.
Verdict: Marcus Mariota is someone that I believed would be a perfect fit for the Patriots in 2020. But, the Patriots elected to go with Cam Newton over Mariota. But, getting there hands on Mariota in 2021 would make a lot of sense. He’s mobile, accurate, and Mariota played under Chip Kelly in college. Bill Belichick and Chip Kelly are close, and Belichick has a history of listening to his friends in college football. On top of the Chip Kelly connection, Belichick is close with Raiders general manger Mike Mayock. When trying to figure out Bill Belichick, it’s important to read the tea leaves, and to connect the dots. Mariota may not be the long-term answer in New England, but he could flourish in New England if used correctly. I think Marcus Mariota joining the Patriots is certainly a possibility.
Dak Prescott
The Cowboys and Dak Prescott have been unable to come to an agreement on a long-term extension, and it has certainly caused some friction with the two-parties. After a season in which Prescott had 30 touchdown passes, a 65.1% completion percentage, and quarterback rating of 99.7, many people expected the Cowboys to figure out a contract extension with Prescott. But, the Cowboys ended up placing the franchise tag on Prescott. But, once the 2020 season started, it took a turn for the worst for Dak Prescott. The 27 year old Prescott broke his ankle in week five, abruptly ending his season. Prescott will be a free agent after the season, and it should be a complicated process to retain their franchise quarterback. The Cowboys have a plethora of holes on their roster, and with the cap dropping, it’s not totally out of the question that Prescott moves on. So, what if Prescott does reach the open market?
Pros: Elite quarterbacks don’t hit the open market often, but Prescott certainly fits the criteria of that. In 69 starts, Prescott has a 42-27 record, with 106 touchdown passes, a 66.0% completion percentage, and a 97.3 quarterback rating. Up until this season, which was shortened by his ankle injury, Prescott has never had a losing record under center. He’s a two-time pro bowler, and won the rookie of the year award in 2016. Prescott also broke an NFL record during his rookie season for the most consecutive passes without an interception to start his career. Prescott went 177 passing attempts without an interception, breaking Tom Brady’s record of 162 passes.
Cons: Dak Prescott will certainly be the best free agent quarterback if he reaches the market, but it will cost a significant sum of money to land his services. It would likely take a contract that would pay Dak Prescott between $32 and $37 million a year for five years. That’s a hefty price, especially coming off of that gruesome ankle injury. There’s also a chance that the Cowboys franchise Prescott again, and then look to trade him. If that’s the case, the Patriots would have to give up draft capital, and dish out over a contract worth over $150 million.
Verdict: The Patriots do have the necessary cap space, but with so many other needs, paying Prescott all that money could hamstring the team from adding skill position players, and adding help in the front-seven of the defense. I would be surprised that if the Cowboys end up letting Prescott leave the organization. Bill Belichick has never paid through the nose at the quarterback position, and I don’t expect that to change with Prescott. Dak is a really good player, but the Patriots aren’t making a move of that magnitude for anyone.
Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton’s career with the Bengals can be best categorized as a roller coaster ride. The first five seasons of Dalton’s career ended in a winning record. After five seasons, Dalton’s career record was 50-26-1. Dalton led the Bengals to the playoffs four times during that span. But, Dalton struggled mightily in each of those four playoff games, and lost all of them. Dalton had seven interceptions in the four playoff games, and only had a quarterback rating of 57.8. The second half of Andy Dalton’s career was much different than the first half. The next four season’s in Cincinnati, Dalton only had a 20-35-1 record. The 2019 season was the ugliest of them all, as Dalton was 2-11 as a starter. The Bengals had the first-overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, and selected Joe Burrow. Andy Dalton was released after the 2019 season, and signed a one-year contract worth $3 million with the Cowboys. With the hope of rebuilding his stock, Dalton chose Dallas to rehabilitate his career. After Dak Prescott hurt his ankle, it became the Andy Dalton show. In nine games as a starter, Dalton was 4-5, with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions. With Dalton set to re-enter free agency, at the end of the season, is Andy Dalton a fit in New England?
Pros: Many people believed that Andy Dalton would be the Patriots starting quarterback in 2020, but that did not come to fruition. Dalton has been a durable quarterback throughout his career, despite some suspect offensive lines. Dalton’s played a full 16 game season six times in his career. On top of his durability, Dalton is known for having a high football IQ, and his football awareness is quite apparent. Dalton likely won’t cost too much, and will likely only cost around $5 to $7 million annually on a short-term deal.
Cons: Andy Dalton’s career may have started out well, but it has been nothing short of a disaster the last five-seasons. Dalton’s lack of production in big spots is a major concern. The 0-4 playoff record speaks for itself, but he has struggled in prime-time games throughout his career. Dalton is 6-17 in prime-time games in his career, with 25 turnovers in those 23 games. Dalton leads a loaded Dallas Cowboys offense, and has not flourished like many people anticipated. He struggled out of the gate, losing three of his first five starts in Dallas.
Verdict: If Bill Belichick wanted Andy Dalton, he would have signed him last offseason. Belichick and the Patriots had every chance to ink Dalton, but they chose to roll the dice with Cam Newton. The Andy Dalton to New England train does not have the juice it used to have. I’d be really surprised if Belichick took a shot on Andy Dalton.
Carson Wentz
If someone in 2017 would have told me that Carson Wentz could potentially be on the move, I would have never believed them. But, at this point in time, it certainly feels like it is a possibility. The second-overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft finds himself at rock bottom. In 2017, it felt like Carson Wentz truly had a chance to be the face of the NFL. He had an 11-2 record with 33 touchdown passes, and led the NFL with a 77.2 QBR. Wentz was the favorite to win the MVP award, and the Eagles were rolling over opposing defenses. But, in week 14 everything changed. In a game against the Rams, Carson Wentz suffered a Torn ACL, and missed the remainder of the season. The Eagles ended up winning the Super Bowl, but with Nick Foles under center. Wentz watched from the sideline as his backup scored 41 points on Bill Belichick’s defense. However, the Eagles made the decision to keep and extend Wentz, and later on traded Nick Foles. But, once Wentz returned from the knee injury, he has not been the same. Since returning, Wentz has a 17-21-1 record. After a 3-8-1 start to the season, Carson Wentz was benched in favor of 2019 second-round pick, Jalen Hurts. Wentz has four years left on his expensive contract, and the Eagles seem to have played better when Jalen Hurts is under center.
Pros: Carson Wentz is only 28 years old, and has played at an elite level, in the past. It’s tough to forget how special Wentz looked in 2017, but he still played some good football since them. In 2019, Wentz led the Eagles to a 9-7 record, throwing for 27 touchdowns. He’s a perfect example of a guy, who would truly benefit from a change of scenery. Philadelphia has not done him any favors, and has failed to surround him with an adequate offensive line, or adequate skill position players. Wentz was sacked 50 times in his 12 starts this season. The Eagles front office has not done Wentz any favors, and even spent a second-round draft pick on a quarterback. That was a poor message to send to Wentz, and it ruined his confidence. It’s obvious that the Eagles don’t trust Wentz. Bill Belichick could be the perfect person to get Carson Wentz’s career back on track, and guide him back on the path of being a star quarterback.
Cons: The number one con in regard to Carson Wenz is his bloated, expensive contract. Wenz has a cap hit of over $34 million in 2021. That’s the fifth highest among quarterbacks in 2021. Wentz has an average salary of $32 million the next four years. So, if Bill Belichick wants Wentz, he’ll have to part with draft capital, and be willing to absorb a steep cap hit. If the Patriots do elect to pull off a trade for Wentz, they may not have the cap room to surround Wentz with quality skill-players. Bill Belichick has a lot of holes on the current roster, if they go with Wentz, they will financially hamstring themselves for years to come. Wentz is no slam dunk, it’s an expensive gamble. Wentz’s regression and poor decision-making makes him a risky acquisition.
Verdict: I can’t see Bill Belichick trading for this Carson Wentz and this contract. The Patriots have so many internal issues, trading for a broken down Wentz, could blow up in Belichick’s face. The Patriots need a quarterback, but for that price, Wentz is not that guy. If Belichick swung a deal for Wentz, and he faltered, the Patriots rebuild would be set-back multiple years.
Alex Smith
Alex Smith is on track to win the Comeback Player of the Year award, after returning from his gruesome leg injury. After the Washington Football Team benched Dwayne Haskins in favor of Alex Smith, Smith has propelled the Washington Football Team to playoff contenders. Smith is 5-1 in five starts with a 66.7% completion percentage. In games, that aren’t started by Alex Smith, the Washington Football team are 2-8. He’s been a real difference-maker under center, even if he isn’t the same quarterback he once was. Alex Smith is under contract for for two more seasons, at a very expensive price. Smith has a cap hit of over $24 million in 2021, and over $26 million in 2022. With the cap shrinking, I’d be surprised if Alex Smith returned to Washington under those numbers. The Washington Football Team can save $14 million if they release Smith. So, if Smith does get released, should the Patriots take a look?
Pros: Alex Smith is the prototypical game manager, who avoids big mistakes. He’s always had a high completion percentage, and has always been a specialist in the short-passing game. Smith could be a perfect bridge quarterback, who will take care of the ball, and make the necessary plays to stay competitive. He’s experienced, and has lit the Patriots up in the regular season. The Patriots are 0-2 against Alex Smith in the regular season, as Smith has thrown seven touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and has a completion percentage of 78.69%. Smith has a quarterback rating of 147.0 in those matchups and scored over 40 points in each of those games. Bill Belichick has a history of bringing in players that have performed well in the past against the Patriots.
Cons: By the time next season rolls around, Alex Smith will be 37 years old, and it’s not clear how much he has left in the tank. After major surgery on his leg, it’s unclear how much of a factor Smith can be. He’s performed decent this season, but there is only a limited sample size. The Patriots do not have the skill position players to help Alex Smith flourish, which could result in an issue. His mobility is non-existent, and after the injury, he’s nothing more than a statue in the pocket.
Verdict: Alex Smith may be the prototypical game manager, but at this stage in his career, it may be best to pass on him. He’s performed above expectations this season, but I’m just not sure he could last a full 16 game slate without some form of mobility. Smith would likely cost between $7 and $10 annually, which is not expensive, but I feel like for that price, they can find production from others that could be on the market.
Dwayne Haskins
Dwayne Haskins was the 15th-overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but after just 13 starts, Haskins found himself being placed on waivers. After struggling on the field, Haskins found himself struggling off the field as well. After taking selfies with fans during a game last season, and partying at a strip club this season, the Washington Football Team decided to cut bait with Haskins. He went through waivers without being claimed, and is now a free agent with a ability to sign with any team.
Pros: Dwayne Haskins was released without even completing his second season in the NFL, and at only 23 years old, there is room for Haskins to grow and improve. Many believed that Haskins was the best pure passer in the 2019 draft class. But, through his first two seasons in the NFL, that has not come to fruition. Maybe, under a new system, and a new coaching staff, Haskins could develop properly. He’ll also be very cheap in terms of the cost to sign him.
Cons: When Haskins has been given a chance, he’s really floundered in every possible situation. Last season, Haskins was 2-5 in his seven starts with a QBR of 28.4. This season was not much different when Haskins was under center. He was 1-5 in six starts with seven interceptions, and a QBR of 30.7. On top of the bad play, Haskins’ maturity level is certainly in question, and could be a problem going forward.
Verdict: Dwayne Haskins may be someone who succeeds in a new setting, but on the field I just don’t see it. He makes poor reads, he’s not an accurate passer, and has often been confused by blitz packages. Unless, Bill Belichick sees something that everybody doesn’t I’m not touching Haskins. Bill Belichick is very close with Haskins’ college coach, Urban Meyer. Maybe, there can be something there. But, I just don’t see Haskins being a fit in New England.
Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan has been an above-average quarterback for the majority of his career, but Ryan has not been able to take the jump into the elite quarterback conversation. Matt Ryan won the MVP award in 2016, along with reaching the Super Bowl during that season. But, since that Super Bowl defeat, Matt Ryan and the Falcons have not been the same. Since 2016, Ryan is 28-34, with one playoff appearance in the last four seasons. The 2020 season was not a good one for Ryan and the Falcons, as they head into week 17 with a 4-12 record.. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff were fired midway through the season. So, with an entire new staff coming in for 2021, would the Falcons consider moving on from Matt Ryan?
Pros: Matt Ryan would provide the Patriots with stability at the quarterback position for the short-term. Even during Ryan’s subpar seasons, he still is a guy who will throw 25 touchdown passes with a 65% completion percentage. Ryan would be a perfect guy for the Patriots in the short term. Ryan has always been an accurate passer, who has the ability to really stretch the field. He’s also been one of the most durable quarterbacks in the game for the last decade. During his last 10 seasons, Ryan has only missed one start.
Cons: The only way that the Patriots could get Matt Ryan under center in 2021, would be via trade. The reason being, because of Ryan’s expensive contract. If the Falcons were to release Matt Ryan, it would be over a $49 million dead cap hit. Ryan’s cap number in 2021 is at $40 million, which ranks as the second highest among quarterbacks. That’s certainly an issue for a Patriots team that has so many holes. For a short-term solution to the quarterback crisis, the 35 year old Ryan would put the Patriots in a tough spot financially.
Verdict: Trading a mid-round draft pick, and the $40 million cap hit make this a very unlikely outcome. Unless, Matt Ryan is willing to have a serious contract restructure, I don’t see the Patriots acquiring Ryan. His contract makes him very difficult to trade, I just can’t see Matt Ryan ending up in New England in 2021.
Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston’s career in Tampa Bay was a disappointment, as he didn’t even earn himself a second contract with the team. In his five seasons as a starter, he had one winning season. In 2019, Winston led the NFL in interceptions with 30, and has thrown 46 interceptions in his last two seasons as a starter. After being a free agent in 2019, Winston took a one-year $1.1 million contract with the Saints. Winston elected to serve as Drew Brees’ backup, competing for reps with Taysom Hill, who was the starter once Drew Brees suffered a ribs injury. With Taysom Hill the likely heir to Brees, Winston could find himself in a new setting next season. Winston will be a free agent at the end of the season.
Pros: Jameis Winston has certainly proven that can make all of the throws. He’s always been a guy who will throw for a lot of yards, and can score a lot of points in a hurry. He plays out of control, but Bill Belichick could potentially coach that out of him. He’ll be very cheap, and has some upside if he plays with control, patience, and becomes a better decision maker.
Cons: Winston has proven to be arguably the most turnover prone quarterback in the NFL over the last five seasons. He’s proven countless times that his decision-making skills are not at an NFL level. Decision-making is not easy to coach, and Winston could be at a point in which he just can’t read defenses well-enough. Saints head coach Sean Payton went to Taysom Hill without hesitation when Brees was injured, that is a good indicator that Winston still just does not get it.
Verdict: It’s tough to trust Jameis Winston, and I can’t see Bill Belichick putting up with a turnover machine like Winston. Winning the turnover battle is a key ingredient for Bill Belichick when it comes to winning games. Winston jeopardizes that, every time he steps on a football field. Despite the low-cost, I don’t see Bill Belichick bringing in Jameis Winston into New England.
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford is certainly one of the biggest names this offseason, that could be on the move. After twelve seasons in Detroit, many have speculated that his time is up. After head coach Matt Patricia and general manager Dan Quinn were fired midway through the season, the future of the Lions is foggy. The Lions have now missed the playoffs in their last four seasons, and have only had a winning record four times in the last 12 seasons. The Lions front office has not done Matthew Stafford many favors over the past decade plus. Much of the time, Stafford has been forced to deal with a putrid offensive line, a non-existent run-game, or a defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league. On top of that, Stafford has truly dealt with incompetence in the coaching ranks. Matthew Stafford has two more seasons left on his current contract. If the Lions elect to go with a full reboot, will Matthew Stafford be part of the future in Detroit?
Pros: Matthew Stafford is the best quarterback that could potentially be on the move this offseason. Stafford is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the NFL, as it truly takes a lot to keep him out of action. Stafford’s win-loss record may not be great, but that should not solely fall on him. In his last 24 games, he has 45 touchdown passes, with only 15 interceptions. He has a quarterback rating of 99.2 during that span, with a completion percentage of 64.2%. He’s dealt with a lot of adversity in his career, and if he’s brought into a competent organization, he could really pop. His talent certainly gets overlooked, but the fact is that he’s truly a special passer. Pairing him with Bill Belichick could open up so many avenues for him and the Patriots.
Cons: If the Patriots want to land Matthew Stafford they’ll have to trade for him, and give up some draft capital. It would likely be a mid-round draft pick, but the bigger question would be, would Bill Belichick be interested to take on Stafford’s contract? He has two-years left, with a cap hit of $33 million in 2021, and $26 million in 2022. It’s a two-year commitment, but paying Stafford that kind of money would indicate that the Patriots can compete for the playoffs. Filling in the rest of the holes on the team, and paying Stafford that kind of money will be a challenge. Stafford’s career record is 74-89-1, and his playoff record is 0-3.
Verdict: The Patriots need to use their draft capital wisely, and need to spend their money wisely, but if Matthew Stafford ends up on the trade market, he’s someone Bill Belichick needs to go and get. The upside is tough to pass up on, and acquiring Stafford will instantly change the landscape of their offense. He’s the answer to the Patriots problem at quarterback.
Mitchell Trubisky
Mitchell Trubisky will forever go down as the quarterback taken before Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The thought of Trubisky being selected before Mahomes and Watson, makes Bears fans sick to their stomach. None the less, the 26 year old Trubisky may seem like a disappointment, but he still is 6-3 on the season as a starter, and did help guide the Bears to a playoff spot. Trubisky has thrown 16 touchdown passes, and has a career high 67.0% completion percentage. The Bears declined his fifth-year option earlier this year, so Trubisky is to be a free agent this offseason. He has a career record of 29-21, and is 25-13 in his last three seasons as a starter. Would Trubisky be a candidate for the Patriots in 2021?
Pros: Trubkisky isn’t on the same stratosphere as Watson and Mahomes, but can he be a quarterback that just does enough to get by? A guy who can manage the game well-enough to win games? He’s been able to do it with the Bears this season. The offense looked hopeless during the middle part of the season with Nick Foles under center. After getting off to a hot 5-1 start, the offense collapsed and the Bears scored 10, 23, 17, and 13 points their next four games. Then the Bears turned to Trubisky, and the Bears scored 25, 30, 36, and 33 points in their next four games. Trubisky has shown the ability to be a solid game-manager the last nine starts, he’s been completing high percentage passes, and not turning the ball over. Under Bill Belichick, the Patriots could help groom and develop him. If the Patriots go the route of banking of a competition in training camp with a couple free agent acquisitions, Trubisky could be on the table.
Cons: The run Trubisky is currently on is more of a fluke than anything else. Trubisky has been benched multiple times in Chicago, and has had long stretches in which he has been unable to move the ball. In 2019, the Bears ranked 29th in the NFL in total yard per game. Consistency has been an issue for Trubisky throughout his career. For the better part of his career, he’s had stretches in which he’s looked good, and the Bears offense flourishes. But, he’ll have times where he struggles, and the offense looks abysmal. On top of that, Trubisky also has trouble reading defenses, at times. He struggles to diagnose a blitz, and gets really flusterd under pressure. Being able to read a difference is important in Bill Belichick’s offense. Being able to change plays at the line with the ability to identify the pressure is important.
Verdict: Mitchell Trubisky has certainty looked capable these past nine starts, but Trubisky isn’t an ideal candidate to be the starter in 2021. If the Patriots want to bring him in for developmental purposes, and have him be in the conversation for the backup job, maybe they’d consider that. Bringing in Trubisky to be the start quarterback wouldn’t move the needle, and I don’t think Bill Belichick would be interested in a true gamble like that.
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo’s days could be numbered in a 49ers uniform. The 29 year old Garoppolo has gotten the job done when he’s been under for the 49ers. He has a career record of 22-8 in San Francisco, and of course took them to the Super Bowl last season. But, despite his success on the field, the 49ers have been rumored to be contemplating a quarterback change in 2021. According to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen, “Garoppolo’s injuries certainly complicate the picture. Kyle Shanahan, the coach said, he believes Garoppolo will be the quarterback in 2021, but he says he can’t say it with certainty. Most league insiders believe if there’s a better option, the 49ers will have somebody other than Garoppolo at the start of next season.” Now it’s unclear what potential option that is. But, it’s fair to criticize Garoppolo’s injury history, because he has not been dependable to stay on the field. He’s missed a grand total of 23 games due to injuries with the 49ers. He’s had two high ankle sprains, a torn ACL, and while he was in New England he suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to miss time. The 49ers could save $24 million if they elect to cut him. If they do, should Bill Belichick elect to bring Garoppolo back to New England?
Pros: When Jimmy Garoppolo has been healthy, the 49ers have simply won games. Including the playoffs, Garoppolo has won 74% of his starts. Kyle Shanahan is often considered to be one of the brightest young head coaches in the game. But, when Garoppolo isn’t under center, he has a 7-27 lifetime record. Now, there is obviously other factors that go into that, but it’s apparent that he’s succeeded with him, and has failed without him. Garoppolo has shown the ability to be accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, which is a staple of the Patriots offense. When Garoppolo made his NFL debut in New England, Garoppolo looked comfortable in the offense. In a complex offense like the Patriots’, understanding audibles, and recognizing coverage patterns are key, and Garoppolo was able to exemplify that in his two starts with the Patriots.
Cons: The obvious knock on Jimmy Garoppolo is his inability to stay healthy. For a quarterback who will likely cost north of $20 million annually, staying healthy is pivotal. If the Patriots elect to bring in Jimmy Garoppolo, and he’s unable to stay healthy, the Patriots future success will be in doubt.
Verdict: If Jimmy Garoppolo becomes available, the Patriots should absolutely make a run at him. He fits the offense so well, and it would solve the issue at quarterback for at least the next few seasons. It’s well-documented how much Bill Belichick likes him, and if all that is true, once Garoppolo becomes available, the Patriots should be the first team to come knocking. Garoppolo would give the Patriots the ability to compete for a playoff spot, and would give Bill Belichick a chance to win with his guy.