Fresh off last night’s third and final preseason game, Bill Belichick and the Patriots must trim their roster to 53, ahead of Tuesday’s 4:00 p.m. deadline.
Bill Belichick and the Patriots are always full of surprises, and I don’t expect this year to be any different.
Quarterbacks: (3) Cam Newton, Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer
Like it or not, Cam Newton looks like he’ll be the week 1 starter. Newton has seemingly done enough through training camp and the preseason games to win the job. Newton has worked exclusively with the first-team offensive line and first-team skill position players in the the preseason. He’s also notably been the first quarterback through team and individual drills in the preseason.
Mac Jones has looked dynamite this preseason, making some NFL throws, elevating skill-position players. He’s been nipping at Newton’s heals all summer, and will get the keys to the Patriots offense very soon. If it were up to me, Jones would get the start week 1.
Despite Brian Hoyer’s limitations, he’s an excellent mentor for Mac Jones. Nobody knows the Patriots playbook like Brian Hoyer, as he’s been in the system for about 7 years in three different stints. Carrying 3 quarterbacks would be ideal, especially with COVID protocols or potential absences. Releasing Hoyer in the attempt to bring him back on the practice squad seems unlikely. A team in need of a veteran backup quarterback would be all over Hoyer.
I also expect Jarrett Stidham to land on PUP list.
Running Backs: (6) Damien Harris, James White, Rhamondre Stevenson, JJ Taylor, Brandon Bolden, Jakob Johnson
After the trade of Sony Michel, this position log-jam looks resolved. The Patriots find themselves with a variety of options, and a variety of different styles at this position. JJ Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson have made the most of their opportunities this preseason, and Brandon Bolden is a valuable piece on the special teams unit. Jakob Johnson helps in goal-line packages, and Bill Belichick typically utilizes a fullback . If this group can stay healthy, they’ll be a top-10 rushing unit in the NFL.
Wide Receivers: (4) Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Gunner Olszewski
Much has been made about how many receivers the Patriots will carry in 2021. A lot of speculation surrounds the 2019 first-round N’Keal Harry, But, ultimately I believe that Harry starts the season on the PUP list, and the Patriots reassess his future when he’s healthy. Kristian Wilkerson has shown some flashes this preseason, but has been bitten by some costly drops. I just don’t see the Patriots carrying him on the initial 53-man roster, but they’ll likely make an attempt to keep him on the practice squad. The same could be said about Tre Nixon and Isaiah Zuber who would fit in nicely on the practice squad.
I expect the Patriots to go thin at the receiver position, due to their pass-caching depth at running back and at tight end.
Tight Ends: (3) Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Devin Asiasi
The Patriots spent a pretty penny on free agents in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. They both will be pivotal pieces of the offense in 2021. Devin Asiasi has gotten some looks this preseason, actually being an option in the passing-game. Matt LaCosse could be on the PUP list to start the season due to his head injury. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s flat out cut. Either way, I don’t see LaCosse making the 53-man roster. Henry, Smith, and Asiasi provide the Patriots with the best tight end room that they’ve had since the early days of Rob Gronkowski.
Offensive Line: (9) Isaiah Wynn, Mike Onwneu, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Trent Brown, Justin Herron, Ted Karras, James Ferentz, Yodny Cajuste
I have the Patriots keeping 9 offensive lineman, which may seem hefty, but, they’ll need some substantial depth here. If the Patriots are going to win games, they’ll need to be able to protect the quarterback and run the ball effectively. The starting offensive line should be a top-5 unit in the NFL, but there are potential issues that could arise. Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown have had trouble staying healthy. Karras and Ferentz would both be slated to be the backup interior offensive linemen. Herron and Cajuste will be the backup swing tackles.
Defensive Line: (6) Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise, Henry Anderson, Carl Davis
Last season, the Patriots’ defensive line was one of the weakest units on the team. There run-defense was abysmal, and they generated little to no pass-rush from the defensive line. But, this revamped defensive line should be much different from a season ago. Godchaux and Barmore both have popped this preseason, and both will have prominent roles this season. Despite the fact that Anderson played late into the final preseason game, he’s due $3 million guaranteed this season. I can’t see Belichick parting with Anderson at that price. Byron Cowart is a candidate for the PUP list, or even IR.
Linebackers: (8) Dont’a Hightower, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Matt Judon, Kyle Van Noy, Josh Uche, Ronnie Perkins, Harvey Langi, Anfernee Jennings
The Patriots linebacker depth is night and day compared to last season. Getting Dont’a Hightower back was big in itself. But, adding Matt Judon and Kyle Van Noy are two additions that will do wonders for this Patriots team. They’re truly deep at this position, as they’ll be forced to part with some NFL caliber players. In particular, I’m forecasting a trade of Chase Winovich. The Patriots just don’t have room for Winovich in this group of linebackers. Winovich has been inconsistent in New England, and didn’t really take that jump that many expected him to last season. A team would absolutely be willing to acquire Winovich, as he has shown some flashes as a pass-rusher. He just isn’t the best fit in New England, in this defensive scheme.
Cornerbacks: (6) J.C. Jackson, Jonathan Jones, Jalen Mills, Myles Bryant, Justin Bethel, Shaun Wade
The Patriots cornerback room without Stephon Gilmore is certainly a major concern for this team. Talks surrounding Gilmore have seemingly been quiet over the last few weeks, and that can’t be a great sign surrounding his availability. I believe that Gilmore will start off the season on the PUP list, and the Patriots will kick the can on the Gilmore conversation for at least the next few weeks. This group has limitations, and is certainly a concern going forward. Jonathan Jones and Myles Bryant have dealt with injuries, Jalen Mills has been inconsistent, and nobody knows what to expect from Shaun Wade.
Safeties: (4) Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Cody Davis
Cody Davis slots into more of a special team role, but McCourty, Dugger, and Philips will all have prominent roles at Safety. Dugger should be someone that really takes a step forward in his growth and progression. But, Dugger has shown some limitations in coverage this preseason. If he can improve upon that come the regular season, Dugger will burst onto the scene.
Special Teams: (4) Nick Folk, Jake Bailey, Joe Cardona, Matthew Slater
After Quinn Nordin’s struggles in the preseason, it seems like a virtual certainty that Nick Folk wins the starting kicker job. No real surprises, other than Brandon King just missing the cut, as the Patriots are already loaded with special teams depth across the board.