The San Francisco 49ers have officially put all their chips in the middle of the table.
In a blockbuster deal, the 49ers moved up the draft board, as they acquired the third-overall pick in this year’s draft from the Miami Dolphins. The 49ers gave up the 12th-overall pick, a first-round pick in 2022, a third-round pick in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023, to move up nine spots in this year’s draft.
The move doesn’t come as a huge surprise, as upgrading the quarterback position has been a discussion for almost two full years in San Francisco. The 49ers have seemingly inquired about a multitude of quarterback options throughout the league. Whether it has been Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, or even Tom Brady.
Jimmy Garoppolo has a 22-8 regular season record with the 49ers, along with a Super Bowl appearance in 2019, but he has missed 23 starts in the last three seasons. His durability has been a serious issue, and has been a constant theme throughout his NFL career.
But, when healthy, Garoppolo has done enough to win games, and the 49ers have struggled mightily without him under center. Kyle Shanahan has a 7-27 record as a head coach when Garoppolo is not the quarterback. No, Garoppolo is not elite, but he’s delivered for Shanahan, and has done what has been asked of him.
With the 49ers moving up to the third-overall pick, they will certainly select Garoppolo’s replacement at quarterback. So, Garoppolo’s tenure in San Francisco is over, right?
Well, according to Adam Schefter, the 49ers have no plans to move on from Garoppolo.
The 49ers continue to publicly back Jimmy Garoppolo, but their actions do the exact opposite. You don’t mortgage multiple first-round picks, move up the draft board, to keep Garoppolo around in 2021. Especially, with Garoppolo’s $24.1 million base salary. His base salary is the second highest in the NFL amongst quarterbacks. The 49ers would save $24 million if they were to move on from him.
I understand the notion that this 49ers team is ready to contend. Having Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold in 2021 gives them the best chance to succeed in the short-term. Obviously, there is growing pains with rookie quarterbacks, but let’s not pretend that the 49ers would be drafting a complete project with the third-overall pick.
Chris Simms is very close with Kyle Shanahan, so this tweet should not be taken lightly.
On top of the financial component, it’s rare that rookie quarterbacks selected in the top-five don’t see the field. Since 2015, there has been nine quarterbacks selected in the top-five of the NFL draft. Seven of those nine quarterbacks made 10 or more starts in their rookie season. In today’s NFL, quarterbacks coming out of college are more ready then ever to step right into the action.
So, do the 49ers really intend on keeping Jimmy Garoppolo in 2021? Something tells me, Garoppolo wouldn’t be thrilled to be a stop-gap. He also holds some of the cards, as he does have a no-trade clause in his contract. Are the 49ers really willing to pay a “bridge quarterback” $24 million in 2021?
No they don’t, it’s all about gaining some leverage, and the entire league knows it. The 49ers are trying to get a hold of the narrative that they’ll keep Garoppolo. But, in reality, this is just the 49ers telling the rest of the NFL, “up your offers, or we’ll keep him.” To this point, I’m sure that the offers for Garoppolo have been underwhelming. If they were appropriate, the 49ers would have already moved on from him.
In a perfect world, I’m sure that Kyle Shanahan would love a soft landing for his future rookie quarterback, but if the 49ers don’t move on from Garoppolo they could potentially lose a semi-valuable trade chip. Garoppolo’s stock across the league isn’t at the highest, but, what if the rookie beats him out in training camp? What if Garoppolo gets hurt again? If the 49ers elect to move on from Garoppolo in 2022, he’ll only have one year left on his contract opposed to two.
The most logical thing for the 49ers to do is to trade him this offseason.
And most logical spot for Jimmy Garoppolo is the New England Patriots.
Obviously, the Patriots drafted Garoppolo in 2014, and everyone knows how fond Bill Belichick is of Garoppolo. Belichick raved about Jimmy G after trading him to the 49ers back in 2017:
“The 49ers are getting a good player, and they’re getting a good person, and they’re getting a great teammate, and they’re getting a good quarterback.”
The Patriots spent through the nose this offseason, plugging a plethora of holes on their roster. Offensively, they made big time signings with tight ends, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, along with receivers Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne. They spent more than they ever have before, it was truly unprecedented.
They re-signed Cam Newton before the start of free agency, but Newton’s contract would not stop the Patriots from getting in on the Garoppolo sweepstakes, nor have they committed to Newton in 2021. After the free agent flurry, the Patriots still have around $15 million in cap space, but to fit Garoppolo in, they would have to move some money around. Or, Garoppolo would have to agree to a contract restructure.
The Patriots are in an interesting spot, and the remaining quarterback options are dwindling. Cam Newton isn’t someone you can depend upon, and Jarett Stidham seems like a longshot to make the roster.
The Patriots may struggle to find their quarterback of the future in the draft. With the 15th-overall pick, they may not get an opportunity to draft one, high up. Quarterback-needy teams such as the Jaguars, Jets, Panthers, Broncos, Falcons, and of course the 49ers will all be drafting in front of the Patriots.
So, the Patriots may be forced to take a quarterback later on in the draft, and hope it pans out. But, pairing Cam Newton and a mid-round draft choice does not seem like a recipe for success.
Jimmy Garoppolo knows the Patriots’ system, has succeeded in a short-sample size, and would give the soon to be 69 year old Bill Belichick an opportunity to win in the short-term.
So, what would be an appropriate offer to pry Jimmy Garoppolo out of San Francisco? If I’m Bill Belichick, I do whatever it takes. The 49ers seem dead-set on not selling him for a mid-round draft pick, so fair value would be a second-round pick.
The Patriots currently don’t have a second-round pick in this year’s draft, so they could offer their 2022 second-round pick. Or, they could look to move someone on their roster for the necessary draft capital. Or, including cornerback Stephon Gilmore in a trade would make a great deal of sense.
But, despite the Patriots being a logical landing spot, teams such as the Bears and Broncos seem like they could be potential suitors. Both are desperate for better play at the quarterback position. Garoppolo is from Illinois, and Bears general manager Ryan Pace would likely welcome an opportunity to bring in Garoppolo, it could save his job. When it comes to the Broncos, you can’t count them out when it comes to veteran options. Even with John Elway no-longer involved with day-to-day operations, he knows how important it is to have a functional quarterback.
But, the Patriots can’t lose the bidding war for Garoppolo. He’s likely the last veteran quarterback option that will shake free this offseason. As crazy as it may sound, Garoppolo is the final piece.