Biggest Surprises & Disappointments 50-Games Into the Season

It’s been quite the season thus far with lots of surprises, and a few major disappointments 50-games in. Big Nate is here to breakdown all of the major news to start off the season so far, along with my predictions nearly a 1/3 of the way into the 2022 MLB season. Following an unprecedented offseason which saw a three-month-long lockout, with major rule changes most notably the universal designated hitter finally being put into place, many teams made some huge moves. With a handful of teams given playoff expectations ahead of the season, with a few teams considered having no shot at playing in October.

Teams like the Dodgers and Mets made franchise-altering moves in signing 1B Freddie Freeman and SP Max Scherzer, while teams like the Tigers and Twins made confusing moves in signing SS’s Javier Baez and Carlos Correa in the midst of rebuilds. Then there’s the Red Sox and Yankees who didn’t unleash a huge spending spree, but signed players wisely in 2B Trevor Story while the Yankees re-signed 1B Anthony Rizzo instead of Freeman, and traded C Gary Sánchez and INF Gio Urshela to the Twins for SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa and washed-up 3B/DH Josh Donaldson.

Biggest Positive Surprises

The Yankees’ early season dominance leading the league in wins, is something that I wasn’t expecting right away. I still have questions when looking at their rotation, but Nestor Cortes and Gerrit Cole is a very nice 1-2 punch, and given Luis Severino’s injury history… I’m not sure how reliable he might be as the season progresses. Aaron Boone is also not a good manager. He’s made numerous questionable moves in the playoffs, and in the regular seasons of past as they wind down. Their catching tandem of Kyle Higashioka and Jose Trevino can’t get on base for the life of them, but their defense is all they’re about. SS Gleyber Torres continues to decline as he still can’t hit and he’s not much of a defender either. Then of course there’s Joey Gallo whose an Ox in the outfield and at the plate sporting an abysmal .167 BA/.270 OBP/.570 OPS. He’s only there to drive in runs and hit home runs and he can’t even do that as he has 5 HRs and just 7 RBIs.

There’s major questions marks surrounding their bullpen as Clay Holmes, Michael King, and Wandy Peralta are seemingly the only ones showing up to the ballpark. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can’t carry this offense, especially given Stanton’s injury history as he’s already on the 10-day IL with an ankle injury. It’s nice to see Yankees fans happy for the first time in years, I guess, but it’s just 50-games in and of all of the playoff teams where the standings are at right now… They have the most issues.

There have been a handful of NL teams living up to their expectations, so I won’t be talking about them. But the second best team in the NL right now, whose been a top four team in the game all season long, is the New York Mets. Buck Showalter, after taking four-years off from coaching to spend time with family and to broadcast for MLB Network, is 34-17 and has done a great job managing an NL team for the first time since 2000. The Mets’ .263 BA leads all of MLB, as their collective .735 team OPS is the best in the game by a mile. With the injury to James McCann, and Tomas Nido not doing anything offensively, the team MIGHT look to acquire a catcher at the trade deadline.

Pete Alonso has made a legitimate case to win the NL MVP, so far, which would be the first in Mets history. His 13 home runs and 47 RBIs don’t only lead the Mets, but the RBIs are the most in the league, and his home runs are the second most in the NL. His .286 BA/357 OBP/.881 OPS are the highest of his career 50-games into a season, by a long shot. Francisco Lindor, after taking a year to get adjusted to New York after playing six-years in Cleveland, has 40 RBIs which are the third most in MLB and are the most of his career at this point of a season by 13. His .790 OPS also leads all MLB shortstops, and he’s been taking more walks than he has been at all in his career.

Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill were both off to great starts, but will be missing another month as Jacob deGrom plans to be back somewhere before them. The bullpen has been solid, but while I don’t believe the Mets will trade for a SP, they should look to acquire multiple relievers, as well as a DH, at the trade deadline. Time will tell if the Mets will be able to maintain this early season dominance, but with the emergence of Brandon Nimmo as a star, and Starling Marte playing phenomenally, anything is possible

The Red Sox started off terribly going 16-22, but are 6-4 in their last 10-games and are just 3.5-games behind the division rival Toronto Blue Jays for a Wild Card spot. After a horrendous start to the year for the new $140M man in Trevor Story, he now has 9-home runs and and a team high 37 RBIs. The team’s .258 collective batting average, which has sky rocketed of late, leads the AL as Boston has also been hitting a lot more home runs of late. Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez are on a whole other world right now, but the question remains… What will come of Xander Bogaerts in two-months?

If the Red Sox continue to gain momentum and take advantage of a banged up Yankees team, I don’t see Xander being traded. There are a handful of teams in baseball who can afford to let a star walk at Free Agency, and survive it by either trading for a star or singing another star, and Boston is one of those organizations. Trading Xander at the deadline, for a handful of prospects, would send a terrible message to not only the fan base that they’re seemingly throwing in the towel, but to the team as well. Devers is under contract through 2024 and TRADING one of his best friends mid-season, might ensue another Mookie Betts situation where he wants out in a year.

I still have little faith in their rotation, and the backend of their bullpen, so if they’re to make any trades at the deadline, it’ll be for at least two starting pitchers. Relying on Nate Eovaldi and Garrett Whitlock to lead a major playoff run is comical, as both of them would be a 3-4 of any of the AL playoff teams. They’re in dire need of an ace, and guys like Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray, Frankie Montas, Luis Castillo, Patrick Corbin, Zac Gallen, Roansy Contreras, Brady Singer and possibly Aaron Nola, are the names to keep an eye on Red Sox fans. But the team seems to be playing how they were supposed to play heading into the year, and with 112-games left to play, I could definitely see the Red Sox making a strong playoff run from here on out.

Biggest Disappointments

The White Sox’s start at 23-24 in a bad division, as they’re 5-games behind Minnesota for the AL Central lead, is something that I was not anticipating at all. Losing SP Carlos Rodon to the Giants was a huge blow, but Lucas Giolito continues to depress Washington Nationals fans as he’s been as dominate as ever, and once star prospect Michael Kopech has been on another level. In 8-starts the lefty has a 1.29 ERA/0.85 WHIP/2.71 FIP with 39 K’s across 42 innings of work. He’s 1-1 as the White Sox just can’t give him any run support. Their bullpen has been very solid, among the best in the league, but their offense is hitting a collective .233 BA/.290 OBP/.646 OPS.

They have two-everyday starters in Yasmani Grandal and Leury Garcia who are both posting an BA of under .191. The most underrated player in the sport, SS Tim Anderson, is hitting .356 with 24 runs scores, but he’s now battling an injury. With all this power, as last year they were third in the league with home runs, CF Luis Robert leads the team in HRs with just 6… and he too is injured right now. Croneyism was shown at it’s finest when owner Jerry Reisndorf hired his friend Tony la Russa ahead of the 2021 season, and if Reinsdorf has any sense, he’d fire the once great manager before things start to get any worse.

The 21-28 fourth place Seattle Mariners are my biggest negative surprise so far. The team acquired star 2B/OF Adam Frazier, two solid players in OF Jesse Winker and IF Eugenio Suarez, and signed OF Jorge Soler, oh and signed the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray. Ray has since posted a 4.75 ERA/1.20 WHIP/4.18 FIP with 68 K’s across 61 IP, and is 4-5 on the year. Frazier’s hitting just .255 BA, .324 OBP, .675 OPS with just two-home runs and 17 RBIs off of 48 hits. Winker’s hitting .212, and Suarez leads the team in home runs at nine, but is hitting .212.

Star rookier CF and nephew of the biggest cheater in MLB history A-Rod, Julio Rodriguez has been on of the few bright spots on this team. He has a league-high 14 stolen bases, with a .741 OPS. Ty France continues to prove his greatness as he leads the team in BA at .342 and has a team-high 35 RBIs. SS J.P. Crawford continues to produce as he has an .849 OPS to go along with a .306 BA. The team only has one starting pitcher with a sub 3.55 ERA, and that’s Logan Gilbert at 2.29. The bullpen has also been atrocious as besides Paul Sewald and his 2.70 ERA, the next best is Anthony Misiewicz’s 4.97 ERA. This teams needs to step it up, and I put full blame on manager Scott Servais. He did lead the team to 90 wins last year, out of no where I might add, but with the team finally having a nice future, seemingly for the first time since the 90s, they should hire a real leader of men.

The NL doesn’t have as much bad surprises as the AL, but the Phillies have playing some really bad baseball all year long. Disbeliever in analytics Joe Girardi continues to make fans around the league question why he’s still there. He won the 2009 World Series off of a team that he inherited. Besides Bryce Harper, Jean Segura and Nick Castellanos, this team isn’t producing any runs. They have three everyday starters hitting under .250, and their defense has been deplorable as they lead the league, by far, with 30 errors.

Their pitching isn’t much better, Aaron Nola is a shell of himself as he’s boasted a 3.56 ERA and has a 4.02 ERA since 2019 after a 3.35 ERA in the four-years combined before then. Kyle Gibosn, Ranger Suarez and Zach Eflin continues to be wasted starts for this team that had a lot of high expectations during Spring Training. Zack Wheeler has a 3.16 ERA, but he’s looked anything but the “2022 Cy Young winner” that every MLB analyst thought he would be in the offseason. This team needs pitching, but the backend of their rotation is BAD. Their bullpen has looked pretty solid, but James Norwood and even Jeurys Familia blow games every other night for them, and Norwood’s 8.16 ERA in 17-hames, makes me wonder why he’s not in Triple-A already.

Positive Player Surprises

After three solid seasons in St. Louis, Paul Goldschmidt might be Pete Alonso’s biggest competition in winning the MVP award. Goldy’s slashing .352 BA/.418 OBP, with a NL high 1.044 OPS and an NL first basemen high 2.6 WAR. He’s also driven in 42 runs to go along with 11 home runs off of 63-hits. The 4x Gold Glove Award winner isn’t slowing down at 34-years of age as he’s been perfect at first base yet again.

After getting his option declined by the Red Sox this offseason, Martin Perez has proven his old pitching-riddled squad wrong as he leads the league with a 1.60 ERA, to go along with a 0.99 WHIP, and a career high 3.1 K/BB ratio in his second go around with the rebuilding Texas Rangers.

After having a solid rookie season in 2021 for the Blue Jays, the 6’ 6” 260 lb righty Alek Manoah has been extremely fun to watch in 2022. He’s 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA (third best in the league,) 0.91 WHIP (best in the league,) with 52 Ks across 56 IP. With Jose Berrios and Hyun-Jin Ryu off to sluggish starts, Toronto is going to need Manoah, along with Kevin Gausman, to continue their hot starts going forward.

Angels’ OF/INF Taylor Ward has been outstanding after taking a four-years to get it together, but he’s really been showing why he’s a former first round pick this year as he’s slashing .359 BA/.472 OBP/1.181 OPS, his on base percentage and OPS lead the entire league, to go along with 10 home runs and 26 RBIs. LAA’s pitching is a no-show, yet again, but between Ward, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, at least Angels fans have that to be happy about.

When Eric Hosmer was nearly traded to the Mets in the ladder days of Spring Training, he was open to a move, but so far in 2022 the 2015 World Series champion has put together quite the elite season thus far. From 2018-2021 (when Hosmer signed an 8-year $144 million deal with San Diego) the lefty slashed .264 BA/.323 OBP/.738 OPS with just 61 home runs and 269 RBIs. This year the lefty’s hitting .312 BA/.378 OBP/.769 OPS with four home runs and 24 RBIs. With the prolonged injury to Fernando Tatis Jr, Hosmer has stepped up, and has been proving his worth, finally, for the Padres.

Negative Player Surprises

The Milwaukee Brewers have been great in 2022 and lead the NL Central with a 32-19 record, no thanks to Brandon Woodruff though, who finished fifth in the 2021 NL Cy Young Award voting and was also an All-Star. The righty’s 4.74 ERA is far cry from his dominance over the last two-three seasons. While he’s striking out more batters than he ever has, he’s already on pace to give up more home runs than he did last year, and to nearly double the amount of runs he surrendered. If the Brewers want to have a legitimate chance at beating the Dodgers, Padres and the Mets in the playoffs, they’re going to need to get more out of Woodruff.

After an elite season last year for Teoscar Hernandez in which he won the Silver Slugger Award and finished in the top 20 AL MVP voting, the outfielder is slashing .170 BA/.240 OBP/.501 OPS… by far the worst season of his career and not being able to perform with runners in scoring position has cost the Blue Jays a handful of wins during the season. The Jays will be fine, but it wouldn’t shock me is Hernandez is packaged in a deal at the trade deadline for a replacement and another reliever.

When Marcus Semien signed a 7-year $175 million deal with the Texas Rangers, many across the league were surprised to see the star INF head out to Arlington. After putting up 85 home runs, 217 RBIs and a .854 OPS between 2019-2021, Semien is off to an abysmal start for the Rangers slashing just .197/.261/.529 with just one home run and 17 RBIs. With the Rangers being in the midst of massive rebuild, even though they spent a league high half a billion dollars in the offseason, Semien has time to get it together.

Cody Bellinger was once a name that fans would hear and feel happy, now, Dodgers fans question his worth. From 2017-2019 the “star” OF slashed .278/.369/.928 with 111 home runs and 288 RBIs, along with a 2017 Rookie of the Year Award and an MVP Award back in 2019. Since then, the lefty’s been slashing .201/.281/.655 with 27 home runs and just 84 RBIs. This year, Bellinger is on pace for his worst professional season as he just five home runs, 18 RBIs, and .291 OBP to go along with just 20 runs scored. The Scott Boras client is set to be a free agent after the 2024 season, and has done nothing of late to prove that he’s worth what Boras will inevitably be asking for.

Bobby Witt Jr and Jarred Kelenic were two of the most hyped up prospects entering the 2022 season. Kelenic is now back in Triple-A after breaking camp, and Witt Jr. is slashing .236/.276/.724 across his first 45 big league games. He has managed to steal seven bases, and has been accountable for 47 runs (runs + RBIs), but he hasn’t been the star SS that the Kansas City Royals were hoping to get as their rebuild begins to wind down, so far. Kelenic on the other hand slashed an atrocious .140/.219/.509, and was sent down to the minors a day before the Mariners came to Citi Field to face the Mets earlier in the season… Kelenic’s former organization as he was the then star prospect that the Mets sent to Seattle in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade.

It’s been a great 2022 MLB season so far, and teams like the Mets and Red Sox have a lot to look forward to!