Unlike last year’s draft which saw Paul Skenes go No. 1 overall to the Pirates, there isn’t an arm this time around who deserves to go first. Southpaw Hagen Smith out of Arkansas, and Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns are the only two pitchers most see going in the top 10. The Cardinals at No. 7 would be the best bet to take either of them, with John Mozeliak and company loving to take arms in the early rounds of the draft. With there being a lot of bats who aren’t that far off from contributing in the majors, I find it unlikely that three or more pitchers will go in the top 10.
This years draft class is riddled with high-grade offensive players who will surely be perennial All-Stars and legends at the game for years to come. But don’t let that overshadow the handful of arms in this class, who could make names for themselves working their way through the minors. This year’s class is one of the more exciting in recent memory, and the game of who goes where, will be fun to watch starting July 14.
Image via: Oregon State Athletics (Travis Bazzana)
1. Cleveland Guardians: 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State
Bazzana hit .407/.568/.911 with 28 home runs this year in college while showcasing an advanced approach at the plate with more than twice as many walks (76) as strikeouts (37). Bazzana has an amazing hitting ability which gives him an extremely high floor and advanced All-Star ceiling.
The Australian superstar has played almost any sport you can thing of, while growing up as a kid. Thanks to his dad who’s a huge baseball fan, Travis has been swinging the bat since he was 3-years-old. “He is probably the catalyst of the next generation of [Australian] baseball,” Andrew Riddell, national player development manager at Baseball Australia, told FOX Sports Australia. “And he is going to be a name that everyone in Australia should know.”
MLB Player Comparison: Corbin Carroll
2. Cincinnati Reds: OF Charlie Condon, Georgia
Outside of Bazanna, whose the consensus #1 overall pick, nothing afterwards is as cut and dry. right-hander Chase Burns and Florida 1B Jac Caglianone could go to Cincinnati at No. 2, but the 2024 Golden Spikes winner Charlie Condon is the next best thing after Bazanna.
The Georgia star really needs to work on not swinging at everything he sees as he’s basically been a hit or a strikeout during his collegiate career, but he hit .433/.556/1.009 with 100 hits, 20 doubles, 37 home runs and 78 RBI in 60 games this spring. His 60-hit, 70-power offensive profile at Great American Ball Park would have Reds fans foaming at the mouth.
MLB Player Comparison: Kris Bryant
3. Colorado Rockies: 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida
The obvious knowledge that the Rockies will never be able to convince a top-tier free-agent starting pitcher to play his home games at Coors Field due to the high altitude, should always make finding a potential homegrown ace a top priority when they are drafting toward the top of the first round… so Chase Burns, the flame throwing righty out of Wake Forest is a candidate here. Chase Dollander at No. 9 last year was a good pick for the Rockies, who has impressed a lot this year at Low-A.
After a 33-homer, 90-RBI sophomore season, Caglianone was even better this spring, hitting .419/.544/.875 with 35 home runs and 72 RBI in 66 games, proving to be one of of the best power hitters in the country.
Which kind of falls under the cracks, is that he continued to serve as a two-way player, making 16 starts and posting a 4.76 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 73.2 innings. It remains to be seen if he’ll get a serious look at pitching in the minors, but his power alone will cement him as a top 5 pick, especially with the potential to rake at Coors Field in Colorado 81-games a year, for years to come.
MLB Player Comparison: Gunnar Henderson
4. Oakland Athletics: 2B/SS JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia
If he doesn't go No. 1 overall on a below-slot deal to the Guardians, there's a good chance this will be the ceiling for Wetherholt, and he would give the rebuilding A’s a high-floor infielder with an elite hit tool to join top prospect Jacob Wilson (last year’s No. 6 overall pick) up the middle.
He dealt with a lingering hamstring issue this spring, and it cost him an opportunity to prove he can handle shortstop on an everyday basis, so I believe with Oakland, he’d move back to his prime position of second base. However, he still hit .331/.472/.589 with 16 extra-base hits in 164 plate appearances this spring, and his 65-grade hit tool should help him move quickly through the minors.
MLB Player Comparison: Ryne Sandberg
5. Chicago White Sox: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest
The flame thrower is, in my opinion, the best arm in this year’s draft class. With the White Sox trading Dylan Cease and the looming possibility of Garrett Crochet being dealt later this month, I could see the franchise taking the best available pitcher here. Depending on if Colorado nabs one or not.
With a fastball that bumps 102 mph, a wipeout slider, curveball and changeup, Burns went 10-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 191 strikeouts in 100 innings this spring. Arkansas left-hander Hagen Smith entered the season as the consensus top arm in the 2024 draft class, but Burns has the slight edge based on the improvement on his command issues.
MLB Player Comparison: Hunter Greene
Image via: D1 Baseball (Hagen Smith)
6. Kansas City Royals: SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)
After taking prep catcher Blake Mitchell with the No. 8 overall pick in the 2023 draft, the Royals are the leading candidates to break the seal on this year's high school crop, with Bryce Rainer and Konnor Griffin the consensus top position players of the high school class.
Rainer impressed on the showcase circuit last summer, then showed up for his senior season "bigger, stronger and faster" to steadily climb draft boards all spring and move ahead of Griffin as the leading candidate to be the first high school hitter off the board.
Rainer would have a solid case for immediately becoming the No. 1 prospect in a thin Kansas City farm system. That isn’t to say their farm system is bad by any means, their top prospects have just reached the MLB level and have helped to contribute to their 49-43 record.
MLB Player Comparison: Corey Seager
7. St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas
The Cardinals, led by president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, have a tendency to take the best college pitching available with their first-round selections, and now they have a chance to grab a top of the rotation upside arm with their highest draft position since they took J.D. Drew with the No. 5 overall pick in 1998.
The southpaw was named the SEC Pitcher of the Year this spring, going 9-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 161 strikeouts in 84 innings while limiting opposing hitters to just a .144 batting average and setting an NCAA record with 17.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
MLB Player Comparison: Tarik Skubal
8. Los Angeles Angels: OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M
The Angels are once again being tied to college players who could move quickly through the minors a year after selecting first baseman Nolan Schanuel and calling him up to the big leagues just a few months later.
The Angels continue to brush aside pitching, so I would personally look at Trey Yesavage out of East Carolina, but the pitchers after Burns and Smith in this class would be considered a reach to take them at No. 8. The three best pitchers in the class (with Burns and Smith gone) are all high schoolers, and this Angels team is desperate for immediate help.
Montgomery hit .322/.454/.733 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI this spring, and he has some of the best raw power in the 2024 class. There is a wider range between floor and ceiling for him than some of the other college players in this range, but his upside is also the highest of the bunch.
MLB Player Comparison: Bryan Reynolds
9. Pittsurgh Pirates: SS/OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep (MS)
The term "toolsy" gets thrown around a lot when describing prospects with a broad base of physical skills, and Griffin might be the "toolsy-est" prospect in this year's high school class.
With an athletic 6'4", 215-pound frame, a rare 60-power, 65-speed offensive profile, and the defensive chops to be a solid shortstop or an elite center fielder, Griffin won the Gatorade National High School Player of the Year this year. He has some things to smooth out with his swing, but his elite athleticism and dynamic bat speed should help him make any necessary adjustments.
MLB Player Comparison: Austin Riley
10. Washington Nationals: 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest
With his limited athletic profile and some defensive limitations, Kurtz is the top-tier college player most likely to slide on draft day. That being said, he’s an amazing hitter and this would be a major win for a Nationals team that already has SS CJ Abrams, just called-up OF James Wood (their No. 2 prospect and a top 10 prospect in the sport) and has last year’s No. 2 overall pick in OF Dylan Crews not too far away in Double-A.
In roughly one full MLB season's worth of games (164) over three years at Wake Forest, he hit .333/.510/.725 with 61 home runs and 182 RBI while nabbing far more walks (189) than strikeouts (130).
He will go as far as his defense carries him, but with a strong 6'5", 240-pound frame and a 60-hit, 65-power profile, that could all the way to MLB stardom. But I see Kurtz as a future DH wherever he ends up going, sooner rather than later.
MLB Player Comparison: Brent Rooker
Image via: D1 Baseball (Christian Moore)
11. Detroit Tigers: 2B Christian Moore, Tennessee
Thanks to a terrific run in the College World Series, including hitting for the first CWS cycle since 1957, Moore went from a player regularly mentioned at the back of the first round, to someone who could legitimately hear his name called as a top 10 pick.
He hit .375/.451/.797 with 34 home runs and 74 RBI in 72 games this spring, and his very strong frame and 55-hit, 60-power offensive profile give him a real shot at being a 30-homer threat at the MLB level.
Moore is my favorite player in the draft, all things considered and even more so than Bazzana. The type pf guy he is, his personality, all around play, any team that gets him will love the guy and he’ll quickly become a fan-favorite when he’s up in the majors shortly.
MLB Player Comparison: Jose Altuve
12. Boston Red Sox: RHP Trey Yesavage, East Carolina
The Red Sox would be quick to pounce on Moore, Rainer or Griffin if they are still on the board, but in this scenario they are picking between a list of second-tier college hitters and Yesavage who separated himself from the pack as the clear No. 3 college starter in the 2024 class this spring.
The 6'4", 225-pound right-hander went 11-1 with a 2.03 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 145 strikeouts in 93.1 innings this spring, and with a polished four-pitch repertoire he should move quickly toward his ceiling as a workhorse, middle-of-the-rotation starter with a chance for a bit more if he continues to improve his command.
MLB Player Comparison: Aaron Nola
13. San Francisco Giants: LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro High School (AZ)
The Giants have been heavily linked to high school players, and while they might prefer Rainer or Griffin in this spot, I just can’t see either one of them making it out of the top 10. They also have been strongly tied to Arizona prep left-hander Cam Caminiti.
The 6'2", 195-pound southpaw has four quality pitches, including a fastball that has touched 98 mph and a pair of breaking pitches that have both flashed plus. It's his overall athleticism on the mound that helps separate him from the rest of the high school pitching class.
MLB Player Comparison: Freddy Peralta
14. Chicago Cubs: 1B/OF James Tibbs, Florida State
The Cubs often select college bats who are close to MLB action in the first round, with guys like Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw all fitting that mold.
After a terrific run in the Cape Cod League last summer, Tibbs hit .363/.488/.777 with 28 home runs and 95 RBI in 66 games this spring to solidify his status as one of the most complete college hitters in the country.
MLB Player Comparison: Josh Naylor
15. Seattle Mariners: RHP Ryan Sloan, York High School (IL)
The Mariners have drafted a high school hitter in the first round three-years in a row, and a pivot point in the middle of this year's draft board they could go in a wide variety of different directions.
Illinois prep Ryan Sloan has been a popular name climbing up draft boards the last few weeks, and with a strong 6'5", 220-pound frame, a great fastball and a strong track record on the showcase circuit that helps erase concerns about his quality of competition, this could be his ceiling.
MLB Player Comparison: Tyler Glasnow
Image via: MLB.com (Seaver King)
16: Miami Marlins: 3B Cam Smith, Florida State
A Top 100 prospect in the 2022 draft who went un-drafted due to his strong commitment to Florida State, Smith had a lackluster freshman season, but saw his draft stock trending up when he hit .347/.406/.575 with six home runs and 26 RBI in 44 games in the Cape Cod League last summer.
In his sophomore season he batted .387/.488/.654 with 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 57 RBI in 66 games. The draft-eligible sophomore is still working to fully tap into his tremendous raw power, and his offensive upside is exactly what the Marlins should be hunting for in this draft, as they haven’t had a dynamic offensive player since Giancarlo Stanton.
MLB Player Comparison: Alec Bohm
17. Milwaukee Brewers: OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina
One of the most polarizing prospects in this year's first-round, Honeycutt has an elite combination of power, speed and athleticism, and he hit .318/.410/.714 with 28 home runs, 70 RBI and stole 28 bags this spring.
However, he struck out 83 times in 62 games, giving him the always risky 40-hit, 60-power offensive profile with question marks about how much of his plus power he will be able to tap into at the next level.
With all of that said, his upside and the added value of Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field gives him a high enough floor to roll the dice on his huge upside.
MLB Player Comparison: Jason Heyward
18. Tampa Bay Rays: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State
Benge was one of the better two-way players in the nation this spring, posting a 1.109 OPS with 24 doubles, 18 home runs and 64 RBI as an outfielder, while also logging a 3.16 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 37 innings on the mound.
He prefers to hit and his future is likely an everyday position player with pitching not seeming too likely. His bat-to-ball skills and elite exit velocity numbers helped in legitimizing his breakout offensive performance, and he has more untapped potential than most college players.
MLB Player Comparison: Christian Yelich
19. New York Mets: IF/OF Seaver King, Wake Forest
The Mets have been frequently tied to college hitters, largely due to the long list of them projected to be taken somewhere in this range of the first round. With a polished hit tool and plus athleticism, King fits the type of player they have targeted in recent years in both the draft and on the trade market.
After two terrific seasons at D-II Wingate University, he transferred to Wake Forest for his junior season and hit .308/.377/.577 with 14 doubles, 16 home runs and 64 RBI, showing more playable power than he had in the past.
He has seen time at second base, shortstop and third base, but his best long-term home might be in center field where his plus speed, great arm and good defensive instincts play well.
MLB Player Comparison: Mookie Betts
20. Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa
With a 70-grade fastball that regularly touches triple-digits and a 70-grade wipeout slider, Brecht has the best pure stuff in the draft. The question surrounding him, is command.
The 6'4", 235-pound right-hander had a 3.33 ERA with 128 strikeouts in 78.1 innings this spring, and while he issued 49 walks, he did cut his walk rate from 18.4 to 14.2 percent. If everything clicks, he could be the best pitcher in the 2024 class.
MLB Player Comparison: Dylan Cease
Image via: D1 Baseball (Ryan Waldschmidt)
21. Minnesota Twins: C Caleb Lomavita, California
Minnesota has been lacking a catcher since Joe Mauer began to take reps at 1B way back when, There is a trio of college catchers—Caleb Lomavita (California), Walker Janek (Sam Houston) and Malcolm Moore (Stanford)—who could all be taken at the back of the first round, and in any order with none of them standing out that much over the other.
Lomavita offers perhaps the best mix of physical tools and on-field production, as he hit .322/.395/.586 with 15 home runs and 52 RBI in 55 games this spring while showcasing a plus arm and developing receiving skills.
MLB Player Comparison: Will Smith
22. Baltimore Orioles: LHP Kash Mayfield, Elk City High School (OK)
With a loaded farm system already in place and a beautiful core of young talent in the big leagues, the Orioles are in a prime position to swing for the fences on upside while drafting outside the Top 20 for the first time since 2017.
The 6'4", 200-pound south paw went from throwing in the upper 80s as a junior to bumping 97 mph this spring, and his secondary stuff has similarly ticked up. He turned 19-years-old in February, which will scare some teams off, but with his size and improved development, he could be a staple in Baltimore’s rotation for years to come.
MLB Player Comparison: Logan Gilbert
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mississippi State
The Dodgers don't pick again until No. 98 overall after surrendering their second-round pick as compensation for signing Shohei Ohtani, so the expectation is that they will be prioritizing upside with their first selection.
Cijntje has long been on the 2024 draft radar due to his unique profile as a switch pitcher. He is a legitimate first-round talent from the right side who has drawn comparisons to Marcus Stroman due in part to his undersized 5'11" frame, while offering more of a reliever profile while working from a low arm slot as a lefty.
He might benefit from focusing solely on pitching right-handed, and it will be interesting to see how he is utilized at the onset of his pro career.
MLB Player Comparison: Marcus Stroman
24. Atlanta Braves: RHP William Schmidt, Catholic High School (LA)
Schmidt offers an amazing combination of present stuff with a three-pitch repertoire that includes a mid-90s fastball and 70-grade curveball that registers 3,000-plus rpm spin rates, and future projection with a 6'4", 180-pound frame.
Signability is the biggest question mark if he falls this far down the board, as teams could start looking to float him to the second round with an above-slot deal. The Braves have a great track record of developing pitchers, so this would be an ideal landing spot for his future development.
MLB Player Comparison: Tanner Houck
25. San Diego Padres: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, Kentucky
The last time the Padres took a college player in the first round was Stanford right-hander Cal Quantrill back in 2016, so there's no reason to expect them to stop that trend this year, especially with so many of the top prep players still on the board.
Loud exit velocity numbers and a high contact rate have helped Waldschmidt make a late surge up draft boards as evaluators have started to dig further into batted-ball data and other metrics.
The consensus seems to be that the Padres prefer a college hitter in this spot, and while he doesn't have the same track record of production as someone like LSU slugger Tommy White, Waldschmidt has a more well-rounded skill set.
He hit .333/.469/.610 with 17 doubles, 14 home runs, 46 RBI and 25 steals in 32 attempts this spring while working his way back from offseason ACL surgery.
MLB Player Comparison: Randy Arozarena
Image via: D1 Baseball (Tommy White)
26. New York Yankees: 3B Tommy White, LSU
As usual, the Yankees have been frequently tied to hitters with a lot of power, and White falling into their laps at No. 26 overall might be their ideal scenario.
The fan-favorite slugger began his college career by hitting .362/.425/.757 with 27 home runs as a true freshman at NC State before transferring to LSU and continuing to rake. Across 187 collegiate games, he posted a 1.123 OPS with 75 home runs and 249 RBI.
MLB Player Comparison: Rafael Devers
27. Philadephia Phillies: C Malcolm Moore, Stanford
The Phillies have taken a high school player in the first round in four straight drafts, including prep pitchers Mick Abel (2020) and Andrew Painter (2021) who both quickly developed into top prospects.
J.T. Realmuto is under contract through 2025, and his defense has declined since winning the Gold Glove in 2022. He’s given up a LOT of steals as compared to past years, as his caught stealing percentage is down 20+ percent since 2022.
Moore had a pretty lackluster junior season, hitting .255/.414/.553 with 16 home runs and 36 RBI in 54 games, but beneath his mediocre batting average he showed a much better all-around approach at the plate.
He might have been a top-15 pick if he had put together a better spring, but that just means potential value for a team like the Phillies drafting at the end of the first round that still believes in his offensive upside.
MLB Player Comparison: Logan O’Hoppe
28. Houston Astros: C Walker Janek, Sam Houston
For the second year in a row, Conference USA has a first-round draft prospect, with Florida Atlantic first baseman Nolan Schanuel going No. 11 overall in last year's draft.
Janek hit .364/.476/.709 with 15 doubles, 17 home runs and 58 RBI this spring, and he also stole 13 bases and won Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year honors behind the plate.
His .838 OPS and 11 extra-base hits in 30 games in the Cape Cod League last summer helped answer questions about his ability to handle elite competition.
MLB Player Comparison: Yainer Diaz
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: 3B Billy Amick, Tennessee
The D-backs have picks at No. 29, No. 31 and No. 35 overall, so it will be interesting to see how they approach mixing and matching college players and above-slot high schoolers who have slipped out of the first round.
Amick hit .306/.387/.639 with 23 home runs and 65 RBI this spring, and he fits the profile of a productive, high-floor college bat who might sign for a bit below slot value.
MLB Player Comparison: Ryan McMahon
30. Texas Rangers: OF Dakota Jordan, Mississippi State
One of the best prep athletes in the 2022 Draft, Jordan went unselected because he planned on playing baseball and football at Mississippi State. The three-star wide receiver recruit wound up giving up the pig skin and turning to the bat full-time, batting .336 with 30 home runs in two seasons. He has improved faster than scouts expected and could factor into the first round as a sophomore-eligible player.
MLB Player Comparison: Jackson Merrill
One of the more offensive-heavy drafts of late is surely going to be a fun one this year. Wake Forest, Tennessee and Mississippi State each potentially having three picks in the draft will definitely be the headliner… after Australia more than likely having its first No. 1 overall pick in history.