The Buffalo Bills won their third consecutive AFC East title, and registered their fourth consecutive season with double digit wins. However, the Bills failed to make it to the Super Bowl, losing to the Bengals in the Divisional Round. The Bills failure in the playoffs is becoming a trend, and it’s a cause for concern as they head into 2023. Can this group get it done? The Miami Dolphins made their first playoff appearance since 2016. Miami’s dynamic receivers helped get QB Tua Tagovailoa on the right path, along with head coach Mike McDaniel. Tua’s season ultimately concluded after a concussion, and the Dolphins season ended in the Wildcard round of the playoffs. The New England Patriots took a step back in 2022. The departure of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was truly significant loss for the Patriots, as Matt Patricia and Joe Judge never were able to figure things out offensively. But, after hiring Bill O’Brien as the team’s new offensive coordinator, will they be able to get the offense back on track? The New York Jets showed some growth, but were hampered by the quarterback position. Zach Wilson and Mike White weren’t good enough and the team suffered because of it. But, the Jets may have a new quarterback incoming. The AFC East is improving, so what will in store for 2023?

Key Offseason Dates

March 13th-March 15th: During the period beginning at 12:00 noon, New York time, on March 14 and ending at 3:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 16, clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents upon the expiration of their 2022 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 15.

March 15th: The 2023 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4 p.m., New York time.

Buffalo Bills

Key Free Agents: S Jordan Poyer, LB Tremaine Edmunds, RB Devin Singletary, G Roger Stafford

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: C Mitch Morse

Draft Picks: 6

Salary Cap Space: $-17.1 million (per spotrac.com)

Biggest Needs: RB, G, LB, S, WR

Capitalizing on championship opportunities is so important, and the Bills have had that opportunity the last three seasons, and have failed in each of them. Having Josh Allen at quarterback will never fully “shut their championship window” but as the years continue it’s becoming less and less likely that the Bills can keep the band together. The Bills will more than likely lose their top internal free agents in S Jordan Poyer and LB Tremaine Edmunds.

Poyer will likely receive a contract worth more than $10 million a season, and has openly spoke about playing in a warmer client and living in a state with less state tax. The soon to be 32-year old Poyer has been a staple of the Bills secondary since 2017. LB Tremaine Edmunds will get a contract around that same price tag, and I can’s see Buffalo matching an offer that high. Edmunds is only 24-year old and has proved how versatile he can be at linebacker. The Bills could ultimately lose their two best defensive players in one offseason. Those losses along with the loss of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will be massive for the 2023 team.

The Bills will ultimately lose some pieces, but they still have a chance to get better this offseason. Adding a running back should be one of the top priories for the Bills this offseason. There inability to run the ball has hurt their offense, and has forced QB Josh Allen to make more plays with his legs. Allen is great at it, but it puts his health at risk every time he takes off. Whether it’s with their first-round pick, free agency, or via trade, the Bills should add a running back. If the Bills can add that element to their offense, they’ll be even tougher to stop.

Miami Dolphins

Key Free Agents: TE Mike Gesicki, RB Jeff Wilson

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: CB Byron Jones (released)

Draft Picks: 4

Salary Cap Space: $13.7 million (per spotrac.com)

Biggest Needs: OT, G, LB, RB, TE

The Dolphins made a splash before the start of free agency as they acquired Rams CB Jalen Ramsey for a third-round pick. Ramsey has proven to be one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. He’s a six-time pro-bowler and a three-time all-pro. Ramsey has also agreed to an adjusted contract that will pay him $20 per season over the next two years. Before this deal, cornerback was one of the biggest needs for this team. But, now the tandem of Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard will give quarterbacks a lot of trouble. New Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will have the luxury of mixing up a multitude of coverages.

Many speculated that the Dolphins would be in the quarterback market this offseason. With Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history, many speculated that they would look to upgrade with someone like Lamar Jackson, or Tom Brady if he were to un-retire (again). But, all of those rumors can be put to bed (for 2023) as the Dolphins exercised his fifth-year option. The deadline to exercise his fifth-year option wasn’t until May 2nd, so the Dolphins clearly wanted to get ahead of this early, sending a clear message. Tagovailoa is now set to earn $23.4 million in 2024.

The Dolphins took care of two important tasks, before the offseason has really started. They acquired a front-end cornerback and exercised Tua’s fifth-year option, removing any doubt about his status heading into 2023. I don’t expect the Dolphins to make as many splashy moves this offseason, as they did last year. But, keep an eye on them, as they may now look to improve the interior part of their offensive line.

New England Patriots

*Image: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images / 2021*

Key Free Agents: WR Jakobi Meyers, CB Jonathan Jones, WR Nelson Agholor, LT Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: TE Jonnu Smith, WR Kendrick Bourne, LT Trent Brown

Draft Picks: 10

Salary Cap Space: $32.6 million (per spotrac.com)

Biggest Needs: OT, WR, CB, S, LB

After a really encouraging rookie season, QB Mac Jones and the Patriots offense took a step back in 2022. The offensive coaching staff proved to be detrimental for the offense, as it was the story from the beginning of the season to the end. But, with Bill O’Brien entering the picture as the team’s new offensive coordinator, changes are expected. Putting Mac Jones in a position to succeed should be the goal, as it will best allow the team to determine if he is the future at quarterback.

Surrounding Mac Jones should be the Patriots’ number one priority this offseason. The first decision the team will have to make is about WR Jakobi Meyers. The 26 year old Meyers has been the Patriots’ best receiver for three consecutive seasons. He’s been a dependable and consistent for Mac Jones, who has spoke glowingly about him. Meyers could be looking at a contract that pays him $12-$15 million per season. That price for a receiver has often scared the Patriots away, but with the need to surround Mac Jones, making an exception would prove to be a wise choice.

Even if Meyers does return to New England, the Patriots should look to add another pass-catcher with an emphasis on finding a true number one receiver. Whether it’s through trade or through the draft, the Patriots need an offensive weapon that strikes fear in a defense. Right now they don’t have that, and it impacted them in 2022. The importance of skill-position players has been evident in the NFL. Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are examples of quarterbacks who were given exceptional talent at receiver, which allowed them to take their games to the next level. I don’t see any reason why Mac Jones couldn’t do the same thing with upgraded talent around him.

New York Jets

*Image: Stacy Revere / Getty Images / 2022*

Key Free Agents: C Connor McGovern, DT Sheldon Rankins, S LaMarcus Joyner, QB Mike White

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: DE Carl Lawson, WR Corey Davis

Draft Picks: 6

Salary Cap Space: $14.9 million (per spotrac.com)

Biggest Needs: QB, G, S, LB, OT

It’s no secret that the Jets are currently the frontrunners to land QB Aaron Rodgers. Nothing if official, but things are seemingly trending towards that direction. If the Jets were able to land the 39-year old Rodgers, they would jump into being contenders in the AFC. The choice is up to Rodgers as it seems like he’ll either retire, return to the Packers, or get dealt to the Jets. Rodgers is expected to make his decision before the start of free agency, so it can happen at any moment.

Quarterback play was one of the main reasons why the Jets failed to make the playoffs in 2022. But, upgrading to Aaron Rodgers would change the entire dynamic of this team. While Rodgers would only be the answer for one to two years, it would give them a real opportunity to contend. The Jets’ roster is good enough on both sides of the ball to really take a step forward in the AFC. I know it feels like a forgone conclusion that Rodgers will end with the Jets, but, with Aaron Rodgers nothing can be eliminated. He’s a different kind of guy, so I’m not banking on anything. For the chance the Rodgers does not land in New York, Jimmy Garoppolo would present as the best available option.

However, you slice it, it feels like the Jets will have a veteran under center in 2023. It feels like QB Zach Wilson’s future will be shelved for the time being. Publicly the team has stated their support, but it’s obvious that his play the last two-years has made him arguably the worst in the league at the position. In 22 career starts, Wilson is 8-14, with 15 touchdown passes to go with 18 interceptions. It may benefit him to take a seat for a couple of seasons, and then see what happens.