The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South in 2022, and a big reason why was due to the fantastic bounce-back season from QB Trevor Lawrence. It was clear that Lawrence needed some quality coaching after an ugly rookie campaign, and head coach Doug Pederson provided that. The Tennessee Titans dealt with injuries on both sides of the ball, but it was clear that their roster had aged, leading to some big questions going forward. The Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans are both in similar spots, as they both hired new head coaches this offseason, and both could be in the market for a QB in the NFL Draft.

Key Offseason Dates

March 7th: Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, deadline for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Tag on Players.

March 13th-March 15th: During the period beginning at 12:00 noon, New York time, on March 14 and ending at 3:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 16, clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents upon the expiration of their 2022 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 15.

March 15th: The 2023 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4 p.m., New York time.

Jacksonville Jaguars

*Image: N*athan Ray Seebeck / USA TODAY Sports

Key Free Agents: RT Jawaan Taylor, TE Evan Engram, DE Dawuane Smoot, DE Arden Kay, CB Tre Herndon

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: CB Shaquill Griffin, S Rayshawn Jenkins, WR Jamal Agnew

Draft Picks: 9

Salary Cap Space: -$12.4 million (according to spotrac.com)

Biggest Needs: CB, S, TE, DT, G

Some consider the Jaguars to be the team with the best chance to rise in the category of elite in the AFC. The division is seemingly weak, and Trevor Lawrence and the Jags also quietly added a number one receiver before the trade deadline. The Jaguars acquired Falcons WR Calvin Ridley who was serving a one season suspension for betting on games during the previous season. Ridley will be a true difference-maker for the Jags offense. His last healthy season came in 2020 when he had 90 receptions, 1,374 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. If Ridley can channel anything close to that in Jacksonville, the Jags will become a scary offense to defend.

While adding Ridley will help enhance their offense, their defense still needs quite a bit of work. CB’s Tyson Campbell, Darious Williams, and Tre Herndon managed to play well down the stretch in 2022, but they need some more help in that department. Herndon is set to be a free agent, and I’m also expecting the Jaguars to cut CB Shaquill Griffin. The move would save the Jags over $13 million. Griffin only played in five games in 2022.

The future of Evan Engram is also worth monitoring. Engram had a career season in his first year with the Jags as he hauled in 73 receptions for 766 receiving yards, and four touchdown catches. The decision to sign Engram last offseason truly paid off for the Jags. Now, the question is will they look to re-up with Engram or look to upgrade at the Draft, via free agency, or by trade? Engram could be looking for a multi-year deal worth over $9 million a year. My guess is they reach an agreement with Engram after his overachieving season in 2022.

Tennessee Titans

*Image: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images / 2022*

Key Free Agents: LT Taylor Lewan (released), WR Robert Woods (released), LB Zach Cunningham (released), TE Austin Hooper, G Nate Davis

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: QB Ryan Tannehill, LB Bud Dupree

Draft Picks: 6

Salary Cap Space: $9.9 million (according to spotrac.com)

Biggest Needs: LT, G, WR, QB, LB

The Titans 2022 season was absolutely a disappointment. The Titans suffered their first losing season since Mike Vrabel became the head coach in 2018. QB Ryan Tannehill only played in 12 games, finishing with a 6-6 record. Tannehill’s future seems uncertain and his contract status could be a big reason why. Moving on from Tannehill would save the Titans $18 million from anytime from now until May 31st. But, the Titans would save $27 million if they designate Tannehill as a post June 1st cut. The issue with that is the Titans $27 million savings would come at the very end of the offseason, limiting their options. Last year the Titans spent a third-round pick on QB Malik Willis, but Vrabel’s lack of faith in him makes his future in Tennessee a real question mark. Journeyman QB Josh Dobbs got the must-win Week 18 start instead of Willis. In Willis’ three starts he didn’t have a touchdown pass, tossed three interceptions and had a completion percentage of 50.8%. If the Titans do decide to move on from Tannehill one free agent option could be Jimmy Garoppolo. I could also envision the Titans entering the Aaron Rodgers sweepstakes if he tries to get himself out of Green Bay. The one issue with the Rodgers scenario is that this Titans roster isn’t as appealing as it may have been a few seasons ago.

The Titans have been one of the busiest teams in the NFL so far this offseason. They moved on from nine-year veteran LT Taylor Lewan, WR Robert Woods, and LB Zach Cunningham. These three transactions alone created over $35 million in cap space. But, it did create a multitude of holes on the roster that need to be addressed.

The offensive line is certainly in rough shape, and with Derrick Henry closing in on age 30, that area will need to improve. While Henry bounced back in 2022, it’s really hard to win games relying on Henry’s magic. Expect the Titans to look to fix the tackle position early on in the draft. Fixing that should be the first priority for the Titans because without that whoever the quarterback is will stand no chance.

Indianapolis Colts

Key Free Agents: DE Yannick Ngakoue, WR Parris Campbell, LB Bobby Okereke

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: QB Matt Ryan, DT DeForest Buckner, C Ryan Kelly, CB Kenny Moore, CB Stephon Gilmore, QB Nick Foles

Draft Picks: 8

Salary Cap Space: $11.9 million

Biggest Needs: QB, DE, CB, LT, WR

The Colts continued their trend of signing veteran free agents at the quarterback position. But, the 2022 experiment with QB Matt Ryan was their biggest failure of them all. Ryan was 4-7-1 in 12 starts, with 14 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Ryan was benched, and Frank Reich was fired as their head coach during the middle of the season. The 37 year old Matt Ryan looked just about finished as a starter, and the Colts will be without a doubt moving on from him. The Colts won’t be rolling with a veteran free agent at QB in 2023, as Colts owner Jim Irsay hinted that the Colts would be taking a QB in round one of the 2023 NFL Draft. The Colts hold the fourth pick of the Draft, so fully expect them to select their QB with that pick. There’s a coaching regime in Indy led by new head coach Shane Steichen, so expect Steichen to select the quarterback that makes the most sense for his offense.

Even with a legitimate option at the QB position, this Colts roster needs a true revamp. Getting help at LT, and help defensively will also help this Colts rebuild. I could see them selling off on a couple of their high priced veterans, which would allow the Colts to get younger across the board with incoming draft capital. Some of these veterans could could include CB’s Stephon Gilmore and Kenny Moore.

When it comes to addressing their own free agent talent, the Colts will need to make a big decision on DE Yannick Ngakoue. The Colts acquired Ngakoue last offseason, and he registered 9.5 sacks in 15 games. He could be looking at a contract worth $15 million a season. The franchise tag seems unlikely, but I do think the Colts will extend themselves to keep Ngakoue in the fold.

Houston Texans

*Image: Brett Coomer / Houston Chronicle / 2020*

Key Free Agents: DE Rasheem Green

Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: WR Brandin Cooks, DT Maliek Collins, DE Jerry Hughes

Draft Picks: 12 Picks

Salary Cap Space: $35.3 million (according to spotrac.com)

Biggest Needs: QB, DE, WR, C, G

The Texans went 11-38-1 in their last three seasons, but they have a real chance to change the direction of their franchise this offseason. The Texans enter the offseason with two first-round picks, over $35 million in cap space, and a new young head coach in DeMeco Ryans. Finally landing that franchise QB would truly change the outlook of this franchise. While QB Davis Mills did perform adequately at times, he is not the answer position.

WR Brandin Cooks has found himself in trade talks for about a year now. Cooks is under contract for two-more years, which means the Texans certainly want a valuable draft pick or two in exchange for Cooks. His value isn’t necessarily the highest after his subpar 2022 campaign, but he still is under 30 years old, and would provide an offense with some speed on the outside. I expect Cooks to be sporting a different uniform in 2023.

If the Texans can make the correct moves this offseason, they could find themselves back in contention quicker than most people anticipate. While the Jaguars seem like the class of the AFC South, the Texans can use the Jaguars model to get back into contention, and it all starts with drafting the right quarterback.