In 2022, the NFC South was the weakest division in the NFL. The division winner was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who sported a losing record (8-9). The New Orleans Saints also struggled to meet expectations, finishing their season well below .500 at 7-10. The Carolina Panthers were sellers at the trade deadline, moving a franchise cornerstone in RB Christian McCaffrey, along with firing Head Coach Matt Rhule after five games. With all that going on, the Panthers still found themselves within a game of the NFC South crown heading into Week 18. The Atlanta Falcons took a step in the right direction, but still have some major question marks going forward, especially at the quarterback position. This division is truly wide open in 2023. It’s realistic that every team in this division could have a new quarterback in 2023.
Key Offseason Dates
March 7th: Prior to 4:00 p.m., New York time, deadline for clubs to designate Franchise or Transition Tag on Players.
March 13th-March 15th: During the period beginning at 12:00 noon, New York time, on March 14 and ending at 3:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 16, clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents upon the expiration of their 2022 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 15.
March 15th: The 2023 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4 p.m., New York time.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Image: Getty Images / Douglas P. DeFelice / 2021
Key Free Agents: LB Lavonte David, DE Akiem Hicks, RB Leonard Fournette (expected to be released), TE Cameron Brate (expected to be released), CB James Dean, LB Anthony Nelson
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: WR Chris Godwin, WR Mike Evans, LT Donovan Smith, G Shaq Mason
Draft Picks: 9
Salary Cap Space: $-57 million
Biggest Needs: QB, CB, G, DE, RB
The Bucs had a three-year window with Tom Brady at quarterback. They captured a Super Bowl title in 2020, and made the playoffs in 2021 and in 2022. During Brady’s tenure in Tampa Bay, the front office often extended themselves to keep/bring in veterans to help maximize Tom Brady. While what transpired in Tampa Bay over the last three seasons was completely worth it, the Bucs now find themselves entering the 2023 offseason with little to no financial flexibility. With that being said, the Bucs are a team that many expect to reset their roster. That could include a tear down with some key personnel. The tear down has already started with the expected releases of TE Cameron Brate and RB Leonard Fournette. More are certainly on the horizon, which could include veteran wide receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
Replacing Tom Brady won’t be easy for the Bucs, but it looks like third-year quarterback Kyle Trask may get the first opportunity to do so. Trask was a 2021 second-round pick from the University of Florida. Despite the public support of Trask, I fully expect the Bucs to be in the conversation for some cheap veteran free agent quarterbacks. Some potential fits could be Baker Mayfield, Teddy Bridgewater, Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, Taylor Heinicke, Mike White, or Drew Lock. At this point it seems unlikely that the Bucs would enter the sweepstakes for a higher-priced veteran quarterback like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Bucs need to hit on their draft picks in 2023. The young, affordable talent on this roster is very limited, which is a big reason why this team is in a difficult financial position. I could see them going in number of different ways with their first-round pick (19th overall). But, don’t be surprised if the Bucs look to trade down. They have a number of holes on their roster and only have three picks in the first four-rounds of the draft.
Carolina Panthers
Image: NFL.com
Key Free Agents: C Bradley Bozeman, QB Sam Darnold, RB D'Onta Foreman
Potential Cuts/ Trade Candidates: LB Shaq Thompson, LB Damien Wilson, TE Ian Thomas
Draft Picks: 8
Salary Cap Space: $-4.1 million (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: QB, CB, LB, WR, TE
The Panthers head into 2023 with a new Head Coach in Frank Reich, some talented young pieces, and an owner in David Tepper who is not afraid to make a big splash. The division is up for grabs and the Panthers seem determined to make some noise. But, the first thing the Panthers need to accomplish is to figure out who their quarterback of the future will be. Sam Darnold is slated to be a free agent, and is obviously not the team’s long term plan at quarterback. However, rumors suggest that the Panthers could try to retain Darnold, who could serve as a bridge quarterback. The Panthers also drafted QB Matt Corral in the third-round of last year’s draft. But, with a new coaching regime in Carolina it’s unclear how they’ll view Corral going forward. What the Panthers decide to do at quarterback is still a real question mark going forward. They’ve been linked to free agent QB Derek Carr, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, along with multiple quarterbacks who are projected to go high in the NFL Draft. My best guess would be that the Panthers ultimately draft a quarterback in the first-round of the draft. While, I’m sure Tepper would love to make a move for a disgruntled veteran like Aaron Rodgers or Lamar Jackson, I don’t envision that coming to fruition. I wouldn’t rule out the Panthers trading up in the draft for a quarterback. The Panthers are slated to have the ninth pick of the draft, but have some extra draft capital from the Christian McCaffrey trade.
Panthers LB Shaq Thompson could find himself out of Carolina in 2023. Releasing Thompson would save the Panthers around $13 million in cap room. Thompson has been with the Panthers his whole career, playing over 90% of the defensive snaps in four consecutive seasons. Staying on the defensive side of the ball, don’t be surprised if the Panthers look to extend DE Brian Burns this offseason. Burns is set to be a free agent next offseason, and is coming off a career season in which he had 12.5 sacks. It also help create some cap space for the 2023 offseason.
C Bradley Bozeman may be the Panthers’ biggest free agent this offseason. After signing a one-year deal with the Panthers last offseason, Bozeman could really cash in once he hits free agency. He could make over $10 million anually on the open market, and I’d be surprised if the Panthers paid to keep him. Pat Elflein could be a logical in-house candidate to replace Bozeman.
New Orleans Saints
Image: Sean Gardner / Getty Images / 2021
Key Free Agents: DE Marcus Davenport, DT David Onyemata, QB Andy Dalton, WR Deonte Harty, DT Shy Tuttle, CB Bradley Roby, WR Jarvis Landry
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: QB Jameis Winston, WR Michael Thomas
Draft Picks: 8
Salary Cap Space: $-29.9 million (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: QB, DT, WR, S, LT
The arrow seemed like it was pointing in the right direction for the Saints heading into the 2022 season. Despite losing Sean Payton expectations were still high. Jameis Winston was considered to be a legitimate option at quarterback, after he signed a $28 million deal with the team. However, Winston seemingly got off on the wrong foot with the coaches and was relegated to Andy Dalton’s backup in Week 4. Winston was originally dealing with a back injury. He was quickly cleared, but never got back into the fold. It’s unclear exactly what went down but it had to have been somewhat significant. Andy Dalton was pedestrian at best, and the Saints offense often struggled. Compared to Winston, Dalton was the more conservative signal caller. That may have played a part in Head Coach Dennis Allen’s reasoning. The most likely outcome of the Jameis Winston saga will end with his release. Releasing Winston would free up over $4 million in cap space.
QB Derek Carr seems like the current favorite to be the Saints quarterback in 2023. Carr met with the Saints last month, and played under Dennis Allen with the Raiders. If Carr does not come to fruition QB Jimmy Garoppolo could be another free agent option. The Saints like every offseason will need to make some roster moves to allocate cap space. But, the lack of space will likely impact some of their key free agents. DE Marcus Davenport could receive a contract that pays him up to $20 million a season, and I don’t see the Saints going anywhere near that number, especially with Davenport coming off a relatively disappointing 2022 season. The Saints may end up kicking themselves for not trading Davenport last offseason.
WR Michael Thomas is also worth paying attention to this offseason. Thomas who was once considered to be the best wide receiver in the sport has only played in eight games over the last three years. Thomas could very well be on the move, but it would likely take a trade to get Thomas out of New Orleans. If he’s willing to agree to a contract restructure he would present as a very interesting buy-low trade candidate at the wide receiver position.
Atlanta Falcons
Image: Brett Davis / USA Today Sports
Key Free Agents: OT Kaleb McGary, LB Rashaan Evans, QB Marcus Mariota (released)
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: CB Casey Hayward
Draft Picks: 9
Salary Cap Space: $66.7 million (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: S, DE , LB, QB, CB
Staying in the theme of this division the Falcons could also be in the market for a quarterback this offseason. The team had already released QB Marcus Mariota, saving $12 million in cap space. Mariota started the first 13 games of the season before being benched in favor of rookie QB Desmond Ridder. After the benching, Mariota left the team, which practically ended his tenure in Atlanta.
The Falcons spent a third-round pick on Ridder in last year’s draft. In four starts, Ridder went 2-2 throwing two touchdown passes. But, it feels like the Falcons aren’t necessarily sold on Ridder going forward. Many believe that the Falcons could target a quarterback with the 8th overall pick of the draft. The Falcons were connected to Deshaun Watson last offseason, and could also be quietly monitoring potential veteran trade targets this offseason. But, my money would be on the Falcons taking a hard look at this year’s quarterback draft class.
Despite the uncertainty at quarterback, the Falcons have the second-most cap space in the NFL. Expect them to be heavily involved in this free agent class, specifically on the defensive end. All three units of the defense could use some form of an upgrade, and I think the Falcons will spend to fill in some of their holes on defense.