The Minnesota Vikings won their first NFC North title since 2017 in 2022. The Vikings went 13-4 before getting bounced out in the first-round of the playoffs by the Giants. While their regular season performance was certainly impressive, it was a disappointment to get booted out so quickly in the playoffs. The Detroit Lions entered the season as everyone’s sleeper pick to go on a run in the NFC. To me, it felt like a lot of it stemmed from Detroit’s excellent appearance on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” last Summer. The Lions struggled out of the gate, with a defense playing beyond poorly. But, Jared Goff and the Lions offense rallied the team down the stretch to their first winning record since 2017 (9-8). While, the arrow is seemingly pointing in the right direction for the Lions, the Green Bay Packers have a question mark at the most important position in football. To this moment, it’s unclear whether QB Aaron Rodgers will return, or if fourth-year QB Jordan Love will get the keys to the castle. The 2022 Packers dealt with injuries on both sides of the ball, but both their offense and defense underachieved. The Packers finished the season with an 8-9 record, after three consecutive 13 win seasons. The Chicago Bears finished 2022 on a 10 game losing streak, clinching the first-overall pick of the NFL Draft. However, the Bears traded that pick to the Panthers for the 9th pick, the 61st pick, a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025-second round pick, and WR DJ Moore. This division could go in a number of different ways come 2023.
Key Offseason Dates
March 13th-March 15th: During the period beginning at 12:00 noon, New York time, on March 14 and ending at 3:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 16, clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents upon the expiration of their 2022 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 15.
March 15th: The 2023 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4 p.m., New York time.
Minnesota Vikings
Image: Adam Bettcher / Getty Images / 2022
Key Free Agents: WR Adam Thielen (released), LB Eric Kendricks (released), DT Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Patrick Peterson, C Garrett Bradbury, TE Irv Smith Jr.
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: S Harrison Smith
Draft Picks: 5
Salary Cap Space: $-6.6 million (according to spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: CB, DE, TE, WR, LB
The Vikings began their offseason by releasing some key players on both sides of the ball. Last week the Vikings moved on from LB Eric Kendricks. The 31-year old Kendricks has been a staple of the Minnesota defense for the last eight seasons. He was an all-pro at the linebacker position in 2019, and has played over 90% of the team’s defensive snaps in seven consecutive seasons. The release of Kendricks created $9.5 million in cap savings. But, it certainly leaves a big void on and off the field. The Vikings also moved on from veteran WR Adam Thielen. The release of Thielen created $6.4 million in cap space, but really leaves a void at the slot receiver position. The Vikings will really need to hit on some free agents and some draft picks to replace those two reliable veterans. But, it’s clear that the Vikings are making it a priority to get younger and cheaper this offseason.
QB Kirk Cousins is entering the final season of his current contract. The 34-year old Cousins is coming off an impressive season throwing 29 touchdown passes. But, Cousins’ failures in the playoffs may give the Vikings pause about re-upping him to an extension that may exceed $45 million a season. While Cousins has shown the ability to be a top-ten quarterback in the league, his inconsistency in big spots can still be an issue. I would expect the Vikings to take a deep look at this quarterback draft class, especially in the middle-rounds of the draft.
The Vikings defense was ultimately their un-doing last year, and has been for the last few years. They ranked 31st in the NFL in total yards allowed per game, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, and 29th in points allowed per game. Getting their secondary in order is a must, and it presents as their number one priority this offseason.
Detroit Lions
Image: Justin Edmonds / Getty Images / 2021
Key Free Agents: WR DJ Chark, G Evan Brown, S Deshon Elliot, DT Michael Brockers (released), RB Jamaal Williams
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: DE Charles Harris, WR Kalif Raymond
Draft Picks: 8
Salary Cap Space: $21.3 million (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: CB, G, DT, QB, S
I don’t even think the Lions anticipated that QB Jared Goff would have played this well through his first two year’s in Detroit. Goff has thrown 48 touchdown passes to only 15 interceptions in his last two season’s. Goff’s play at the quarterback position has allowed the Lions to put their quarterback need on the back-burner. But, will that change this offseason? The Lions hold two-first rounds, and could be a candidate to select a quarterback early on. But, in a division that is up for the grabs would the Lions be more inclined to select position players that would help their immediate future, rather than a quarterback who would likely sit behind Goff for the 2023 season? My guess would be that the Lions don’t select a quarterback in the first-round, but after that round, anything is on the table. Jared Goff has truly exceeded expectations, but they still need to find their future at the position. The Lions defense was a mess for the first-half of last season, I’d be shocked if they don’t address that early on in the draft.
Staying with the theme of defense, the Lions selected DE Aidan Hutchinson with the second-overall pick of last year’s NFL Draft. The selection of Hutchinson seems like a home run, as the rookie had 9.5 sacks and was instantly their best pass-rusher. His play will only improve, but the Lions need to improve their secondary. There defense was on an historically bad pace during the early part of the season, but they were able to turn things around (enough). I’d expect the Lions to be in the market for improved play in the secondary.
The offensive line, specifically the guard position needs to be addressed. G Evan Brown will hit free agency and will command a significant contract. Brown could be looking at over $10 million per season, so the Lions have a real decision to make. Do they view Brown as a top-10 guard in the league? After bouncing around the league, Brown has proved to be a reliable offensive lineman the last two seasons.
Green Bay Packers
Image: Brad Rempel / USA Today Sports / 2022
Key Free Agents: S Adrian Amos, WR Allen Lazard, TE Robert Tonyan Jr.
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: QB Aaron Rodgers
Draft Picks: 10
Salary Cap Space: $24.8 million
Biggest Needs: WR, OT, TE, DE, CB
It’s no secret that the Packers quarterback situation is truly up in the air. While, there could be clarity at any moment, nothing is set in stone. Aaron Rodgers controls his future, and there are three options on the table. Option one would be to return to the Packers, option two would be a trade to the New York Jets, and finally option three would be to retire. As it currently stands, it feels like returning to the Packers is the least likely option. It feels like the Packers want to move on from him, and proceed with QB Jordan Love. A trade to the Jets would make them contenders, but does that appeal to Rodgers? He has familiarity with Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and would get the opportunity to command an offense with some young, dynamic skill-position players. But, does the element of New York appeal to him? I also don’t think retirement can be eliminated from the discussion. While there is an enormous amount of guaranteed money left in his current contract, Rodgers would be one of the few quarterback that may actually leave the money on the table. It’s expected that there will be a resolution to this situation by the start of free agency.
In all likelihood the Packers will enter 2023 with Jordan Love at quarterback. His potential is unknown, but the Packers still need to do a good job of surrounding him with adequate skill-position players, and an offensive line that can protect him. The Packers have some money to work with, and will have more once Rodgers makes his decision. But, with this being a relatively weak free agent class at wide receiver, the Packers could look to the draft to find some upgrades at wide receiver. WR Christian Watson improved over the course of the year, but the Packers still should look for more young and affordable talent at receiver.
The Packers should also look to improve their defense this offseason. With their offense being in transition, it would make sense to put some extra resources into their defense. Many expected Green Bay’s defense to be a top-10 unit in 2022, but that did not come to fruition. They could ultimately bounce back in a big way if they can bring in some more talent on all three levels of their defense.
Chicago Bears
Image: Jon Durr / USA Today Sports / 2022
Key Free Agents: RB David Montgomery, LB Nicholas Morrow, DE Al-Quadin Muhammad (released)
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: G Lucas Patrick
Draft Picks: 10
Salary Cap Space: $75.6 million (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: OT, G, WR, CB, LB
Once the Bears made the conclusion that they would continue to build around QB Justin Fields, trading the first-overall pick of the draft was the obvious choice. The Bears were able to land future draft capital, and were able to get Justin Fields another offensive weapon in the process. WR DJ Moore has shown flashes in Carolina, and has put together some productive seasons. But, it felt like the Panthers’ quarterback situation over the years had limited Moore’s ceiling. That could now change in Chicago.
The Bears currently have the most salary cap space in the league. My guess would be that a lot of that money will be used to clean up the offensive line. Fields was sacked more than any quarterback in the NFL last season (55 times). He has been sacked 91 times in 25 career starts. If the Bears want Fields to succeed and take that next step, they’ll need to protect him. There are a number of offensive tackles in this free agent class. The Bears may even get the opportunity to select the best offensive lineman in the NFL Draft when they go to select a player at nine overall.
If the Bears spend money correctly, and hit on some of their high draft picks, they’ll have an opportunity to get back in the picture, quickly. If Aaron Rodgers does indeed leave Green Bay, the Bears could have an opportunity to rise in a similar way that the Lions did last season. The Bears have only won the NFC North one time since the 2011. This is a big offseason for the Bears, and they need to capitalize.