In 2022, the Cincinnati Bengals won their second consecutive AFC North title. They were the clear class of that division, winning eight consecutive games to end the regular season and 10 overall, before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game. The Baltimore Ravens struggled to remain healthy in 2022, QB Lamar Jackson missed the last six games of the season. Jackson’s future is the lead AFC North storyline, and may even be the biggest storyline in the NFL this Spring. Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers were somehow able to register another season with a winning record, doing so behind rookie QB Kenny Pickett. It didn’t take the Steelers long to get the quarterback situation figured out. The Cleveland Browns found themselves at the bottom of the AFC North. QB Deshaun Watson missed the first 11 games of the season with his suspension. But, once Watson returned he did not look like himself. Will he be able to get back on track in 2023? The AFC North is set up to be one of the most exciting divisions in football.
Key Offseason Dates
March 13th-March 15th: During the period beginning at 12:00 noon, New York time, on March 14 and ending at 3:59:59 p.m., New York time, on March 16, clubs are permitted to contact, and enter into contract negotiations with, the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents upon the expiration of their 2022 player contracts at 4:00 p.m., New York time, on March 15.
March 15th: The 2023 League Year and Free Agency period begin at 4 p.m., New York time.
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Free Agents: S Jessie Bates, S Vonn Bell, CB Eli Apple, CB Tre Flowers, TE Hayden Hurst
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: WR Tee Higgins, RB Joe Mixon, OT La’el Collins, WR Tyler Boyd
Draft Picks: 7
Salary Cap Space: $35.5 million (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: CB, DT, OT, RB, LB
Yes, I know that Bengals Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin adamantly denied that he would move on from WR Tee Higgins this offseason. While, I ultimately do find it to be unlikely, the possibility can not be ruled out. The Vikings were adamant that they wouldn’t move on from Stefon Diggs, and they did. Last offseason, there were multiple star wide receivers who were dealt. Some were expected and some were unexpected. I don’t think many people anticipated that the Chiefs would move on from WR Tyreek Hill, but the reality is everyone has their price. The Bengals will need to pay QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase top of the market deals. The likelihood of paying Tee Higgins a hefty extension would be slim to none. Higgins will be a free agent next offseason, and he could ultimately walk for nothing. The Bengals could franchise tag him next offseason to prevent his departure, but it won’t be cheap. The possibility of Higgins getting moved just can not be taken off the table. In terms of other skill-position players, RB Joe Mixon could find himself of the chopping block after a disappointing 2022 campaign. Releasing Mixon would create over $7 million in salary cap space.
The Bengals have a lot of key free agents to make decisions on this offseason. The Bengals chose to not franchise S Jessie Bates. The 26-year old Bates will likely be in the conversation to be the highest paid safety in the game. While, I don’t think he’ll eclipse S Derwin James or S Minkah Fitzpatrick’s deals, I think he’ll slot in right under them. Bates could wind up getting $15-$16 million on an annual basis. I don’t think the Bengals will retain him, but I’d imagine that they’ll make a real effort to retain S Vonn Bell and CB Tre Flowers. The Bengals have the fifth most cap space in the NFL, so they will spend.
After deciphering through their own talent, the Bengals should still add some talent to their defense, and of course their offensive line. The Bengals’ offensive line was better than last season’s, but that unit will still need some upgrades and some depth. Keeping Joe Burrow upright is vital.
Baltimore Ravens
Key Free Agents: CB Marcus Peters, DE Justin Houston
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: QB Lamar Jackson (non-exclusive franchise tag), DE Calais Campbell, WR Devin Duvernay
Draft Picks: 5
Salary Cap Space: $-8.2 million (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: WR, CB, DE, DT, LB
QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have been in intense, ugly contract negotiations for over a year. The saga is still on-going, and it feels like the situation is unsettled and truly a toss up. The Ravens elected to place the non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson. The non-exclusive franchise tag allows Jackson to negotiate a contract with the other 31 teams in the league. If Jackson receives an offer from another team, the Ravens will have the opportunity to match the offer. If they decide not to match the offer, the Ravens will receive two first-rounds picks in exchange for Jackson. I was surprised that the Ravens placed this specific tag on Jackson, but it gives both Jackson and the team an opportunity to evaluate the market. It’s clear that Jackson isn’t thrilled with the team and how these negotiations have played out. But, I’d still give it only a 25% chance that Jackson isn’t in Baltimore come next season. I still feel like the Ravens will ultimately match any potential deal that may come Jackson’s way. It also feels like Jackson’s market may be a little less active than first anticipated. But, this saga has gone this long, maybe the Ravens are truly okay with letting him out of Baltimore.
QB Lamar Jackson’s future will lead the way when it comes to headlines this offseason, but the Ravens still need to build their roster whether he’s there or not. If they do ultimately commit to Jackson, I expect them to try to do a better job of building around him. Jackson’s career in Baltimore has primarily consisted of average to below average play at the wide receiver position. Some of that is because of their run heavy, tight end centric offence, but their lack of talent at wide receiver has hurt their ability to keep up with some of the potent offenses in the league. Jackson would also be much happier if he had wide receiver that is equally as dangerous as TE Mark Andrews. Now, will they address wide receiver in free agency, the draft, or by trade? My guess is they’ll explore all avenues, but trade may be the best route. WR Devin Duvernay has also expressed his unhappiness, so who knows if he will be in the fold in 2023.
The Ravens will need to address their cornerback room this offseason. CB Marcus Peters will hit free agency, and I’m not sure if the Ravens would be in a rush to bring him back. Peters and Ravens Head Coach Jim Harbaugh got into a shouting match on the sidelines multiple times. Peters could make about $10 million per year in free agency, and it may be best for both sides to go their separate ways. In a division with Joe Burrow and Deshaun Watson, the Ravens are going to need to be able to defend the pass. This draft class is littered with talented cornerbacks. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Ravens take one early on.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Free Agents: CB Cameron Sutton, DT Chris Wormley
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: OT Chukwuma Okorafor, LB Myles Jack, QB Mitchell Trubisky, DE Montravius Adams, CB William Jackson
Draft Picks: 7
Salary Cap Space: $-328,887 (per spotrac.com)
Biggest Needs: OT, LB, CB, C, DT
The Steelers may have started off the season slow, but QB Kenny Pickett helped guide the Steelers to a near playoff appearance. The Steelers should expect some growth from Kenny Pickett in year two, but, protecting him needs to be a priority.
The Steelers’ offensive line came together in the second-half of the season, but they still need to add some talent to that group. RT Chukwuma Okorafor is someone who could get released before the start of free agency. It would free up over $7 million in cap space and would allow for the Steelers to upgrade at the position. The Steelers first-pick in the draft is 17th overall, and it may present an opportunity for them to draft a high-end offensive tackle.
However, if the Steelers are unable to keep CB Cameron Sutton, they may take a look at a cornerback in the first-round. Sutton has been a versatile piece of the Steelers secondary, and I imagine that they would like to keep him around. Sutton could receive a contract that could pay him $8-$10 million per season. Sutton has played over 90% of the defensive snaps in two consecutive seasons, and has had five interceptions in the last two seasons.
Cleveland Browns
Key Free Agents: RB Kareem Hunt, DT Taven Bryan, C Ethan Pocic
Potential Cuts/Trade Candidates: WR Jakeem Grant, OT Joe Haeg
Draft Picks: 8
Salary Cap Space: $-13.2 million
Biggest Needs: DT, LB, WR, S, DE
The Browns made a huge splash last offseason acquiring QB Deshaun Watson. After the move to Cleveland, the Browns inked Watson to a fully-guaranteed $230 million contract. Once Watson returned from his 11 game suspension, he struggled. Watson went 3-3 in six starts, with a career-low 58.2% completion percentage. Getting Watson comfortable and back in the swing of things is a must for the Browns.
Adding another wide receiver on the outside would help Watson. WR Amari Cooper had 78 receptions last season, and was an integral part of the Browns passing-game. But, addressing the receiver position through trade would be something that I see the Browns doing.
The Browns defense needs an upgrade in a number of areas. Specifically, the run-defense needs to improve. The Browns defense allowed 135 yards per game on the ground, which was the eighth most in the NFL.