Ranking the Playoff Contenders in the AFC

After 11 weeks into the NFL season, the clear leader in the AFC is yet to be determined. The AFC currently has 10 teams with a winning record, many of which could make a claim that they have a legitimate opportunity to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

For the last two decades the AFC has predominantly belonged to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger. Since the year 2000, these three quarterbacks have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl 15 times. But, now with Tom Brady in the NFC, Peyton Manning retired, and Ben Roethlisberger on the back-nine, the conference has been wide open.

Heading into the 2021 season, the Chiefs and the Bills were considered to be the top tier in the AFC, but, with their flaws, the conference had widened to nearly 10 teams with a legitimate opportunity. However, there is still a lot of football left to be played, and the AFC standings will look a whole lot different than they do now.

But, let’s rank the top-10 true Super Bowl contenders in the AFC:

10. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are a team that should be in contention for a AFC North title, but, the team has under-achieved. The Browns jumped out to a hot start, starting the season with a 3-1 record. But, since then, the Browns have won two of their last six games. Baker Mayfield has struggled, playing some of the worst football of his career. He’s had his fair share of injuries over the last month, but, he’s accounted for six turnovers in his last six games. Since Week 5, Mayfield ranks 18th in the NFL in EPA/Play (0.072), and 18th in CPOE (0.2). For the season, he has a QBR of 37.2 which ranks 27th in the NFL. To put that into perspective, the only quarterbacks that have a worse QBR than Mayfield are Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills, Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, and Justin Fields.

Cleveland’s offensive line has also been an issue, as Mayfield has been sacked 27 times. The Browns remaining schedule is difficult as they have two matchups with the Ravens, along with the Raiders, the Steelers, the Packers, and the Bengals.

I don’t think Cleveland is sold on Mayfield, and it’s clear he’s frustrated with the entire situation. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Browns ended the season on a sour note. All eyes will be on Baker’s future next offseason, and it’s apparent that both sides are boiling with frustration.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are a better team than the Browns, but, they still have some serious flaws. The offense has not played well for the better part of the season, and their team is loaded with injuries on both sides of the ball. Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the quarterback he once was, and the defense isn’t good enough to carry the offense in long stretches. Roethlisberger ranks 25th in the NFL in QBR (43.8), and 24th in EPA/Play (0.061).

Mike Tomlin’s presence gives the Steelers a chance, but I can’t see the Steelers surviving for a string of games to secure a playoff spot. But, the Steelers remaining schedule is BRUTAL. They still await matchups with the Titans, Bengals, Chiefs, and two games against the Ravens.

This season will likely end the Ben Roethlisberger era in Pittsburgh. While, the conclusion of it was more competitive than I anticipated, there still not a good enough team.

8. Cincinnati Bengals

Heading into the season, I wasn’t sold on the Bengals. I had some questions about Zac Taylor, and I had some questions about Cincinnati’s offensive line. But, the Bengals have preformed above expectations this season, and a big reason why has been the connection between Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Ja’Marr Chase leads the Bengals in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He has proved to be a slam dunk of a draft pick, and has helped the Bengals win games.

While the Bengals are currently in a dog fight to win the AFC North, they do matchup well with other AFC opponents. However, there inconsistency makes them a difficult team to predict or read. For example, over the last four weeks, we’ve seen the Bengals demolish the Ravens in Baltimore, 41-17. But, that performance was followed up by two duds, as they lost to the Jets, and lost by 25 points to Baker Mayfield and the fading Browns. And just this past week, we saw the Bengals win-handily against a Raiders team, who has also been jockeying for a playoff position.

Cincinnati’s inconsistency gives me pause, and I think that’s why they’ll ultimately fail to make any serious noise in the AFC. They seem like they’re a team that is really one year away from bursting onto the scene in the AFC. One thing that is for certain is that Joe Burrow is the answer at quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals.

7. Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert has ascended to arguably the best young quarterback in the NFL. The second-year quarterback has gotten the Chargers on the right track. The Chargers offense has become one of the most prolific passing-attacks in all of football. First-year head coach Brandon Staley has helped turn the organization in the right direction. While, his aggressive tactics (especially on fourth-down) has gotten the Chargers into trouble, it’s clear that the team is trending in the right direction.

For the better part of the season, the Chargers were considered to be the favorite to win the AFC West. But, since their 4-1 start, they’ve went 2-3 in their last five games. Despite the fact that their offense could put up points in a hurry, this team is inconsistent. But, I like this team more than the Bengals solely due to the ability of Justin Herbert. He ranks 2nd in the NFL in QBR (67.0), and 4th in touchdown passes with 22.

This Chargers team should make the playoffs, and they are a team that could give defenses real issues. But, the defense is real suspect, and will absolutely limit their ceiling.

6. Tennessee Titans

Despite the fact that the Titans currently are the number-one seed in the AFC, I believe a slide is imminent. The Titans have dealt with a multitude of injuries throughout the season. Most notably, running back, Derrick Henry, who will likely miss the remainder of the season. However, the Titans have won two of three games without Henry. But, Tennessee is coming off of a humiliating loss to the Texans.

Henry isn’t the only injury that the Titans have been forced to deal with. Julio Jones and AJ Brown have missed time, and both are unlikely to play on Sunday against the Patriots.

Despite their 8-3 record, I don’t believe that Ryan Tannehill has played well this season, as his 12 interceptions currently lead the NFL. I think his play will only get worse as these injuries seem to mount on a weekly basis. The Titans have a favorable schedule down the stretch, so, I do believe that they will win the AFC South. But, I don’t think they’ll land the first-seed in the AFC, and a first-round exit is likely in my estimation. Mike Vrabel is one of the best coach’s in the NFL, but I don’t think he’ll even be able to get past these injuries to pivotal pieces on both sides of the ball.

5. Indianapolis Colts

After the Colts started off with a 1-4 record, many thought that there playoff chances were slim to none. But, the Colts have turned their season around. The Colts have won five of their last six games. The only loss that they have endured during that stretch was a loss in overtime against the Titans.

The lead catalyst for the Colts success has been running back, Jonathan Taylor. During this winning streak, Taylor has rushed for over 100 yards five times. His best performance came this past Sunday against the Bills. The Colts ended up winning the game, behind Taylor’s 185 yard, four touchdown performance. The Colts defense has had it’s ups and downs, but they have all the makings of a playoff team.

Now, the division feels too far out of of reach, but the Colts could end up being the most feared wildcard team in the AFC. I think the Colts could be a real surprise come playoff-time, if they stick to their current blue print. But, how much longer is Carson Wentz willing to take a back seat to an offense that circulates around Jonathan Taylor?

4. Buffalo Bills

When the season started, the Bills were considered to be one of the top contenders in the AFC. But, to this point, they have underachieved. They saw a sizeable lead in the AFC East disappear in the last month, due to a really bad loss against the Jaguars, and a blowout loss against the Colts. They have lost three out of their last five games.

The Bills defense came out of the gate really strong, but to some degree, they have come back down to Earth. It still can be argued that the defense is the team’s biggest strength. While the offense hasn’t struggled to put up points, they have become too one-dimensional Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has to make an adjustment, because just letting Josh Allen throw the ball 40-45 times a game isn’t working out. Allen hasn’t played like the 2020 version of himself, and the Bill just haven’t had the same kind of success.

The Bills still have every opportunity to win the AFC East, as they have two crucial matchups against the Patriots coming up. I do believe that this team has an opportunity to fix themselves before the playoffs. But, it just feels like they have a lot of issues to figure out. Who would have ever guessed that at this stage the Bills aren’t even the scariest playoff contender in the AFC East?

3. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are another team that has absolutely been decimated by injuries this season. But, despite a couple of blips, they have found ways to win. It feels like nobody is talking about how phenomenal Lamar Jackson has been playing, especially with what he’s had to work with figs season. Jackson has been the constant for Baltimore, putting them in a position to win.

With the division up for grabs in the AFC North, I like the Ravens to finish off the season as clear winners. If they can get into a rhythm late in the season, they’ll be a scary opponent.

Playing in Baltimore is always a difficult place to play, and if the Ravens get hot, they’ll be a scary out. I know and understand that Lamar Jackson has had his fair share of playoff failures, but with a conference that is wide open, you can’t rule out this Ravens team.

2. New England Patriots

After winning five consecutive games, the Patriots are playing some of the best football in the NFL. The defense has seemingly overnight turned into one of the best unit’s in the league. The Patriots defense ranks 1st in the NFL in points per game (16.1) and 2nd in the NFL in DVOA (-18.6%). They haven’t allowed a single point in their last seven quarters, or their last 17 possessions. The offense is certainly a work in progress under rookie quarterback, Mac Jones. But, he has been far and away the best rookie quarterback in year one, playing well in number of big spots.

Bill Belichick caught a lot of criticism after his 7-9 campaign in 2020, but he’s turned around the entire organization in a singular offseason. They now have their quarterback of the future, their high draft picks have become impact players, and a number of their free agent signings have worked out.

Now, the Patriots recent winning streak has put them in prime position to win the AFC East. But, with two matchups against the Bills remaining, the division will still be up for grabs. Going into a playoff game with Bill Belichick on the sideline gives the Patriots a massive advantage, especially with that defense making plays on a weekly basis. Nobody wants to play the Patriots, and they should very much be in contention to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl come this February.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

For starters, I never considered the Chiefs to be “dead” after their slow, methodical start. They have rattled off four consecutive wins after their 2-2 start. It’s been an impressive turnaround for the Chiefs, as they have won games against some quality opponents. Winning in Vegas isn’t easy, neither is winning against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.

The Chiefs defense had a really slow start, and at times looked hopeless. But, they may have turned the corner, as Prescott and the Cowboys offense was held to nine points on Sunday. The offense has also looked more efficient, and Patrick Mahomes is looking more and more like himself.

The Chiefs may have their flaws, and may not be the 2020 or 2019 version of themselves. But, after firmly securing the lead in the AFC West, they are the number one contender in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, and the offense getting back on track is scary news for the AFC. Is this team invincible? Of course not, but, it’s hard to not consider them he favorites to come out of the AFC at this particular juncture.